Energy Independence: Securing a Strategic Path to 2030

In an unprecedented global transformation of the 5energy sector, Mexico finds itself at a critical juncture. Historically linked to oil self-sufficiency and the robust institutional framework of state-owned enterprises, the concept of energy sovereignty is facing structural challenges that could potentially reverse decades of progress. The Energy Independence Index (EII), a key indicator of domestic energy production capacity, is a clear signal of this tension.

In 2015, Mexico's EII was approximately 0.97. Today, that figure has fallen to 0.72. Let's take a look:

• In 2015, Mexico's EII was approximately 0.97, indicating that the country generated a high proportion of its energy requirements.

• From 2016 to 2018, the index fell to 0.70 due to a contraction in hydrocarbon production and an increase in fuel imports.

• In 2023 (the final year of the measurement period), the EII stood at 0.72, indicating a marginal recovery, yet remaining significantly below the desired levels.

Although the decline has been partially stabilized in recent years, the trend continues to show a growing dependence on external sources. The decrease in domestic oil production, the reduction in PEMEX's active platforms, and the limited incorporation of new reserves have resulted in a scenario that has left the energy industry in containment mode rather than expansion mode.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently issued a warning that Mexico could become a net importer of crude oil by 2030, a scenario that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. It is estimated that up to 500,000 barrels of imported crude oil per day could be required just to feed the national refining system. And that, in a country that still aspires to be self-sufficient in terms of fuel.

It should be noted that this context is further complicated by a particularly complex political and institutional process. The energy reforms promoted by the current administration, while seeking to strengthen the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) as the guiding force of the electricity system and PEMEX on the hydrocarbons side, have generated legal uncertainty among private actors. Domestic and international investors are exercising caution in an environment where the rules are subject to constant change and long-term planning is influenced by political considerations rather than technical factors. To summarize, Mexico is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, albeit with no definitive assurances of stability.

What Can We Expect by 2030?

To answer that question, we developed a series of projective scenarios that consider different rates of economic growth and energy production expansion. The result is a clear reading of the possible paths that EII could take in the coming years:

It is clear from the data that if energy production in Mexico does not grow by at least 2% per year on a sustained basis, the country will not achieve the minimum goal of energy independence by 2030. Robust economic growth without an equivalent national energy supply would further exacerbate external dependence.

The paradox is evident. Mexico is expanding its refining capacity with projects such as Dos Bocas (Olmeca), but it is not securing the main input: crude oil. Despite the advancement of renewable energy, these are being hindered by regulatory obstacles, network saturation, and a lack of systemic integration. EII, which should reflect the success of energy policy, has become a barometer of its fragility.

Despite Mexico's increased renewable generation capacity, challenges persist in the areas of transmission, integration, and storage. Furthermore, by prioritizing the development of self-sufficiency without ensuring the supply of domestic crude oil, the pressure is shifted to imports, affecting structural energy independence.

Energy policy decisions must align with three key objectives: security of supply, environmental sustainability, and economic viability. At this point in time, neither of the three parties has been consistently assured.

What Factors Will Determine the Course?

The following four elements will be pivotal in the coming years:

1. The most significant factor in this regard is investment in domestic energy production. It is imperative to note that, without a sustained increase in oil, gas, and renewable energy production, the EII will not be able to improve structurally, both in hydrocarbons and renewables. Absent this margin, reversing the trend would be unfeasible.

2. Ensuring legal certainty for the private sector is essential for fostering business confidence, which is contingent on a clear and predictable regulatory environment. Regulatory ambiguity and the weakening of the rule of law can have a detrimental effect on investment in energy supply.

3. Achieving balanced economic growth is of paramount importance. Continued GDP growth of more than 3% per year, without corresponding improvements in energy supply, is likely to exert downward pressure on the EII.

4. The implementation of technological integration and efficiency policies is of paramount importance. Key levers for moderating demand growth and maximizing useful production include network digitalization, storage and energy efficiency.

Conclusion

Energy independence is not an ideological concept or a symbolic goal. It is a necessary condition for sustaining economic competitiveness, protecting the balance of payments, and guaranteeing long-term supply. The challenge lies not only in increasing production but also in aligning strategy, regulation, and the vision of the state.

Mexico still has time to correct its course, but the clock is ticking. If there is no coherent coordination between politics, industry, and investment, the country could end this decade with a weaker, more expensive, and more dependent energy matrix. And that is not independence, it is vulnerability. The risk of becoming increasingly dependent on foreign countries will not only be a technical warning but an economic and geopolitical reality.