ICM Unveils Emission Reduction Roadmap for Mexico

Mexico’s goal of achieving net zero emissions and a significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions can feasibly be achieved by 2060, states the report Net Zero Emissions Roadmap for Mexico 2060, from Civil Society (RENC-SC), published by the Mexican Climate Initiative (ICM). 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasized the need to achieve net zero emissions globally by mid-century to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Most developed and emerging countries have already outlined their routes to this ambitious goal. ICM aims to support the Mexican government in presenting a proposal for the path to net zero emissions at the upcoming UN climate change meeting in Dubai in early December, as stated by Adrián Fernández, Executive Director, ICM.

ICM’s report, comprising 139 mitigation measures across sectors such as Electricity, Energy Efficiency, Industry, Oil and Gas, Waste, Transportation, Agriculture, Forestry, and other Land Uses, states that the implementation of these measures could reduce Mexico's net greenhouse gas emissions from the projected 1,035.2MtCO2e in 2023 to net zero by 2060.

ICM suggests a correction of recent policies to prioritize renewable energies, such as photovoltaic and wind, over fossil fuels. The report highlights the need for a significant increase in the capacity of large-scale photovoltaic energy, reaching 26.9GW by 2030 and 63.2GW by 2060. Wind energy capacity should also rise to 17.5GW by 2030 and 73.3GW by 2060.

The envisioned scenario anticipates that over 50% of national electricity generation will come from renewable sources by 2030. Investment in the National Transmission Network (RNT) to increase capacity by at least 10.6GW and to strengthen General Distribution Networks (RGD) is essential, according to ICM.

The report proposes no new fossil fuel-based power plants to be installed by 2027, emphasizing the phased exit from coal before 2030 and complete elimination of fuel oil by 2035. In the transportation sector, gasoline and diesel consumption will peak in 2026 and decrease by 97% and 87%, respectively, by 2060. In addition, proposed measures address methane emissions during oil production, aiming to reduce emissions by 1.3% compared to the baseline for 2060, equivalent to 14MtCO2e.

Regarding natural gas, the study predicts that consumption should peak in 2030, decreasing thereafter. The report argues against increasing natural gas to meet growing electricity demand in the coming years, asserting that such a move would jeopardize Mexico's mitigation goals by 2030 and hinder progress toward net zero emissions by 2060.

In terms of investment, Luisa Sierra, ICM's Energy Director, specified a total investment requirement of US$6.2 trillion between 2023 and 2060, resulting in benefits of around US$11 trillion, almost double the required investment.