Mexico Facing the Beginning of the End of Fossil Fuels

The message from the UN is clear: We are entering the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. This statement calls for a plan to implement, measure, and scale up the adoption and use of renewable energy. The energy transition cannot be decreed, it must be planned with technology, partnerships, and financial discipline.

During COP28 in Dubai, nearly 200 countries recognized for the first time the need to abandon fossil fuels. Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, noted that, “although we have not turned the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this is the beginning of the end.” The agreement calls for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, as well as accelerating the phase-out of coal. For their part, scientists were also clear in noting the need to cut global emissions by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

For UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the fossil fuel era must end with justice and equity, with support for developing countries at every stage. Thus, a just transition is also a financially and socially sustainable transition. Without this triangle, projects do not come to fruition, and incentives erode.

In July of this year, Gutierrez stated that "the energy transition is unstoppable, but it is still not fast enough or fair enough. You just must follow the money," said the UN secretary-general, noting that last year $2 trillion was spent on clean energy, $800 billion more than on fossil fuels and an increase of almost 70% in a decade.

Solar energy, which used to be four times more expensive, is now 41% cheaper than fossil fuels. Similarly, offshore wind energy is 53% cheaper, and more than 90% of new renewable energies worldwide outperform the cheapest new fossil alternatives.

What does this mean for Mexico?

First, Mexican industrial competitiveness will depend on three vectors: the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), supply reliability, and carbon content per kilowatt-hour. Some companies are already feeling the impact in value chains subject to Scope 2 and 3 reporting, contracts with ESG clauses, and consumers who penalize carbon footprints.

Second, electricity demand will grow. Factors such as electromobility, nearshoring, and digitization have accelerated demand, and the system must be expanded and reduce its use of fossil fuels.

Third, distributed generation (DG) is a natural accelerator for reducing losses, relieving pressure on the grid, and shielding homes, businesses, and industries from system instability.

In 2024, Mexico added more than 1GW of new DG (up to 0.5MW) and reached a cumulative total of 4.4GW, with the industrial sector leading the way. In addition, regulatory spaces have been opened to streamline interconnections and send pro-market signals, while states such as Jalisco already exceed 650MW of DG (15% of the national total). This is a solid foundation for scaling up, provided we resolve traceability, storage, and installation quality with robust standards.

Massive decarbonization needs to be standardized, digitized, and financially accessible distributed solar energy. Solar energy is not just an electrical asset; it is a digital decarbonization infrastructure. When an SME or a plant connects its system to a photovoltaic generation source, it not only generates clean kWh, it also generates data that informs maintenance decisions, CAPEX, peak management, and storage planning. That digital layer allows companies to move toward Net Zero goals.

Meeting 2030 Targets

At Solfium, we are already implementing the following points with corporations that integrate solar energy into operations, supply chains, and commercial channels, with robust reporting and contracts that clearly assign risks. The key is to maintain discipline, define technical standards, interoperable data, and predictable financial models.

●Triple renewables: Prioritize distributed photovoltaic generation backed by storage; accelerate permits on industrial land, roofs, and car parks; standardize technical specifications to reduce costs. This line is aligned with the global call to triple renewables and double efficiency by 2030.

●Storage: In industry and commerce, batteries to flatten peaks, improve power factor, and ensure continuity in the event of contingencies.

● Electrify processes and mobility with guaranteed clean energy: Where direct combustion is replaced by electricity (heat pumps, electric furnaces, light fleets), link electrification to PPAs, solar roofs, and verifiable certificates.

● Digitize emissions traceability: Implement real-time Scope 2 and 3 measurements, with MRV embedded in solar projects. This speeds up ESG certifications, audits, and reports, and creates tangible commercial advantages in export chains.

Global incentives have already changed. The end of the fossil fuel era is not an event; it is a process that is reshaping risks, supply chains, and country competitiveness. Mexico has what it takes to produce clean energy: exceptional solar and wind resources, a manufacturing base, logistics clusters, and growing technological development.

It is important to recognize that this change is a process that will take time. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, moving from a fossil fuel-based energy model to a completely renewable one could take several years, as it involves reconfiguring networks, resizing infrastructure, and developing mature technologies. However, every step, from the adoption of distributed solar energy to the integration of storage systems, brings us closer to the goals of carbon neutrality, and the path is already well-defined.

The UN has already sent the initial message: Renewables must be tripled, efficiency doubled, and emissions cut by 43% this decade. Mexico could turn that call into a competitive advantage. Not because a report says so, but because business logic demands it. The “beginning of the end” of fossil fuels is an invitation to build, quickly, with data and partnerships, the economic infrastructure for clean energy.