Mexico's 2026 Economic Package: SENER's Budget Surge

The federal government unveiled its 2026 Economic Package, with energy policy again taking center stage. The plan, presented by the Ministry of Finance to Congress, reflects President Claudia Sheinbaum’s strategy to strengthen state-owned enterprises and consolidate energy as a public good, while balancing fiscal pressures with new commitments to social and infrastructure programs.

The package proposes a sharp 86.8% increase in the budget for SENER, bringing its allocation to MX$267.4 billion. According to government documents, much of this boost will be directed toward PEMEX’s financial rescue, underscoring the administration’s priority to stabilize the oil company’s finances. SENER’s expanded budget also covers regulatory oversight and programs tied to the national energy transition, but its largest portion is earmarked for PEMEX’s debt amortization and investment needs. The increase positions SENER as the single largest beneficiary of fiscal expansion in 2026.

While SENER gains more fiscal space, CFE will see its budget decrease slightly by 1.8%, totaling MX$554.6 billion. Transfers from the federal government remain unchanged in real terms at MX$87.8 billion, which will fund the National Electricity Expansion Plan through 2030. This plan includes building new generation plants, expanding the transmission and distribution grid, and developing innovative projects such as solar-thermal facilities in Baja California Sur. The program’s ultimate goal is to increase Mexico’s installed generation capacity by 25% during the current administration, ensuring reliable and affordable electricity for households and industry.

Despite the modest reduction in CFE’s total budget, the utility is projected to post a financial surplus of MX$20.7 billion in 2026. However, it continues to face revenue challenges. In 2025, CFE’s income slowed compared to the previous year due to weaker domestic sales and lower capital inflows, while PEMEX also saw weaker results driven by reduced international oil prices, heavier fiscal contributions, and lower domestic hydrocarbon sales. Looking ahead, the government expects revenues from CFE, IMSS, and ISSSTE to reach MX$1.23 trillion in 2026, equivalent to 3.4% of GDP, a modest decline from approved levels in 2025.

The economic package reflects a broader shift in the role of state-owned enterprises. Authorities replaced the model of “productive state enterprises” with a framework that recognizes PEMEX and CFE as strategic public entities, considered pillars of sovereignty, security, and economic growth. The new approach prioritizes financial viability, expanded productive capacity, and a direct transfer of benefits to the population. The administration argues that this shift reinforces Mexico’s path toward energy self-sufficiency, reduces external dependence, and strengthens state institutions as guarantors of collective welfare.

Fiscal projections show a federal government deficit of MX$1.78 trillion in 2026, equal to 4.6% of GDP. This will be partially offset by the projected surpluses of state enterprises and social security institutions, which together will contribute MX$385.8 billion, or 1% of GDP. PEMEX alone is expected to post a surplus of MX$263.5 billion, tied to the government’s debt repayment transfers. CFE’s surplus adds another 0.1% of GDP, reflecting the importance of these entities in stabilizing the public balance. In total, the consolidated deficit for 2026 is estimated at 3.6% of GDP, with a primary surplus of 0.5%.

The financing needs of CFE also remain a focal point. Its investment commitments under the Pidiregas model of deferred infrastructure spending are projected to represent 0.15% of GDP in 2026. To manage debt obligations, the government proposes allowing the issuance of refinancing instruments for PEMEX and CFE, similar to measures authorized in 2025. CFE has requested a net internal debt ceiling of MX$8.8 billion and an external ceiling of MX$$969 million to cover its operational and investment plans.