Mexico’s Hydrocarbon Potential: Technical Governance, Exploration

The role of an exploration professional is to identify and evaluate the targets for which they have been trained to find; for those deeply committed to exploration, it is essential to avoid overlooking any detail that could lead to a material discovery. When exploration is framed as a business activity, the efficient allocation and optimization of capital resources must be considered, prioritizing opportunities capable of generating short-term investment recovery while maximizing long-term value. In the current context of climate change — and as should always have been the case — exploration and development activities must be conducted under strict environmental responsibility, minimizing ecological impact, preventing pollution, and ensuring that any residual emissions or disturbances remain within acceptable and properly regulated limits.

From this perspective, the state has the responsibility to administer these resources and establish a regulatory framework that generates broad societal benefits without compromising environmental integrity, whether such activities are executed by private industry or through state-funded mechanisms and institutions. In a democratic system, however, citizens should not assume that an elected official is, by virtue of election alone, the most technically qualified person to guide strategic national decisions, nor that elected representatives are sufficient to ensure balanced decision-making without organized, informed, and technically grounded public participation. This is particularly relevant in a country such as ours, where the historical record shows deeply rooted institutional and cultural weaknesses in the exercise of power. Consequently, it is imperative that society understand and agree that constitutional reforms should not be decided merely by a limited group of political actors raising their hands — individuals who are often not technically qualified for such responsibility — but rather through mechanisms involving competent specialists selected with transparency and representation across each state. History has shown that rushed reforms, negotiated under questionable conditions, can generate significant adverse impacts for the country, while the political actors responsible often conclude their terms without accountability.

With respect to the extractive industry for subsurface energy resources, particularly the oil and gas sector, its administration has historically shown significant deficiencies. The country once produced approximately 3 million barrels of oil per day and currently produces close to 1.5 million barrels per day, in an environment where current prices range between US$70 and US$80 per barrel and where historical prices have reached approximately US$100 per barrel. Under these conditions, it is difficult to sustain the argument that the national oil industry is inherently unprofitable. The central issue lies in governance, resource allocation, operational efficiency, and the way generated revenues are administered, including the need for greater transparency and oversight of union management structures. The objective, however, should not be limited to criticism, but rather to promote institutional and operational improvements that allow the sector to evolve in favor of the public interest, supported by broad and informed participation.

Regarding exploration within the hydrocarbon value chain, exploration activities should maintain a certain degree of technical and operational autonomy, given the complexity and sensitivity of subsurface risk assessment. Investment is required to test, calibrate, and validate the geological and geophysical models that support the key elements of the petroleum system. The energy reform reduced the strategic role of the state-owned company, even though it has historically been the only entity with sustained, large-scale exploration activity in the country, while private companies have largely focused on exploiting existing discoveries or testing previously identified prospects. In addition, multiple areas still lack a robust geological model to support future exploration, while other regions remain underexplored due to their distance from existing production infrastructure. This has created a significant gap between mature producing areas and frontier or emerging areas that warrant systematic exploration. Such conditions challenge the argument that the country has no remaining drillable opportunities with a reasonable probability of success. This is further complemented by unconventional resources, including gas and shale oil plays, which have been technically demonstrated in the Tampico-Misantla Basin and in the Sabinas-Burros-Picacho and Burgos basins. At present, following evaluation by a technical committee, the decision was made to initiate efforts in the Sabinas-Burros-Picacho Basin, while the Tampico-Misantla Basin was considered less viable due to its high population density and environmental sensitivity.

Nevertheless, the initial proof-of-concept tests were conducted without major visibility, operational conflict, or public controversy, until the issue became politicized and environmental and pseudo-environmental groups began to intervene. This ultimately led to the suspension of further testing in these reservoir types by government instruction. From a technical standpoint, as long as the resource remains in the subsurface and has not entered a development or production phase, exploration should be allowed to continue in order to establish a rigorous inventory of prospective resources and, where appropriate, reserves. This is particularly important for unconventional resources, where reserves estimation also requires non-conventional methodologies due to the nature of the reservoirs. The industry-standard approach is Advanced Decline Curve Analysis (ADCA), complemented by numerical reservoir simulation and stochastic methods under the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) framework. A robust assessment of production potential should be carried out under strict environmental safeguards, technically sound operating standards, and clear commitments to avoid negative impacts on local communities.

Based on the considerations outlined above, every peso not invested in exploration represents a delay in the future maturation and development of the country’s resource base. Deferring a rigorous, comprehensive, and technically supported analysis — together with the establishment of clear short- and medium-term regulatory and operational rules — places national energy security and energy sovereignty at risk.