Banxico Expected to Hold Interest Rate at 6.50%: Reuters Poll

A Reuters survey of financial analysts forecasts that Banxico will keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% through 2026 and 2027, as policymakers balance easing headline inflation against persistent core price pressures and modest GDP growth of 1.2%. An extended pause would keep borrowing costs elevated for businesses and households while supporting the peso, even as private-sector growth forecasts remain below the government's 1.8%–2.8% target range. The outlook has broad implications for investors, commercial banks, and corporate treasury teams managing financing and investment decisions.

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Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) is expected to keep its benchmark interbank interest rate unchanged at 6.50% at its upcoming monetary policy meeting, according to a Reuters survey of 35 financial analysts. Thirty-four of the economists polled expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged, while only one forecasts a 25-basis-point cut.

The broad consensus points to an extended pause in monetary easing as Banxico’s Governing Board assesses slowing headline inflation, persistent core price pressures, and moderate economic growth. In June, the board voted unanimously to keep the benchmark rate at 6.50%, following a 25-basis-point cut in early May. That reduction concluded an easing cycle that began in March 2024 and delivered cumulative rate cuts of 475 basis points across 15 policy meetings.

Survey results suggest the central bank will maintain a restrictive monetary stance for an extended period. The median forecast from 28 analysts places the benchmark rate at 6.50% through the end of 2026, while 26 analysts expect it to remain at that level through the end of 2027. Market participants remain divided over the timing and magnitude of future policy adjustments amid uncertainty surrounding inflation persistence and domestic demand.

Headline inflation slowed to 3.37% in June — marking its lowest level since December 2020 — driven primarily by a 6.48% annual decline in livestock product prices, including a 26.89% drop in egg prices. However, this moderation was offset by persistent underlying pressures in other categories, as fruit and vegetable prices rose 5.56% and government-regulated tariffs advanced 7.0%.

Macroeconomic performance data also presents a mixed landscape for monetary authorities. Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.5% in 2Q26, rebounding after a 0.8% contraction recorded during the first quarter of the year. However, private sector analysts noted that a portion of the second-quarter expansion stemmed from temporary drivers, including increased commercial, hospitality, and retail activity associated with the 2026 World Cup.

Private Analysts Raise Mexico’s GDP Forecast to 1.2%

In light of recent economic data, private analysts surveyed by Banxico raised their 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.2%. Meanwhile, Citi Mexico's monthly expectations survey showed a consensus revision from 1.07% to 1.1%. The upward revisions point to a modest improvement in economic activity, although a significant gap remains between private-sector expectations and the government's official forecasts.

Minister of Finance and Public Credit Édgar Amador Zamora said Mexico has maintained macroeconomic stability, regained economic momentum, and preserved sound public finances despite a challenging international environment. Even so, the private-sector consensus of 1.1% to 1.2% remains well below the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit's baseline growth forecast of 2.3% and its broader target range of 1.8% to 2.8%.

Differences among private forecasters remain significant. Citi Mexico's survey of 35 economic research groups showed 2026 GDP growth projections ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%. BNP Paribas and Grupo Bursátil Mexicano (GBM) issued the most optimistic forecasts at 1.5%, while Signum Research projected the weakest expansion at 0.5%. A sizable group of institutions—including Bank of America, Banca Mifel, Bradesco BBI, and UBS—forecast growth of 0.8%, underscoring the cautious outlook among major commercial and investment banks.

Private-sector projections are broadly aligned with those of international financial institutions, including the World Bank's 1.3% forecast and the International Monetary Fund's 1.2% estimate. Looking ahead to 2027, the private-sector consensus projects GDP growth of 1.8%, compared with the government's official target range of 1.9% to 2.9%. Over the next decade, analysts expect Mexico's economy to expand at an average annual rate of 1.88%, broadly in line with the 1.8% average growth recorded between 2000 and 2019.