Does Mexico Have Enough Electricity for Transportation Sector?

When Karl Benz, along with his wife Bertha Benz, developed the first vehicle in history around 1886, it was designed to be powered by an internal combustion engine using hydrocarbons. This engine followed the principles of the Carnot engine, an ideal machine that uses heat to perform work — in this case, movement.

Years later came the first functional electric car, the "Flocken Elektrowagen" (Flocken Electric Car), created by Andreas Flocken in 1888. It required a lead-acid battery for an electrochemical reaction to generate current for an electric motor. This battery had been invented by Gaston Planté around 1860, a few years earlier.

Certainly, several years have passed since those events, and my intention is not to bore our dear readers with lessons in world history, but it is important to see where we come from in order to envision the path we wish to take.

Today, many people are concerned about the energy transition, particularly with the laudable goal of decarbonizing the transport sector. Let's crunch some numbers and see what we can find, as I often say in the classroom to new trainees.

Crunching the Numbers

According to the 2024 National Energy Balance published by the federal Ministry of Energy, Mexico consumed 1,591PJ of gasoline; that is, an estimated 0.75 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, or 273 million barrels of oil equivalent in gasoline alone over the course of a year.

Let's assume we are using equivalent calorific values ​​for our calculations, dear readers.

Now, let's consider that electric cars are 60% more efficient than conventional cars, and that this figure includes losses due to transmission, distribution, and the entire electrical grid chain; in other words, we only require 40% of the initial energy.

This means that if tomorrow we wanted to replace all gasoline vehicles with electric ones, we would need something like 178 billion kWh; that is, 178,000GWh to put it in a way that is accessible to all readers so that no one is left with any doubt and everyone can understand it.

Now, let's assume we want to completely decarbonize this sector.

If so, let's assume the solution is photovoltaic plants, eliminating the need for combined cycle power plants, gas turbines, or any other option requiring hydrocarbons. We'll even rule out nuclear energy due to its controversial waste.

For our calculations, let's assume an average of 6 hours of sunlight every day of the year; that is, every day is sunny with not a single cloud in sight. Based on this calculation, we need approximately 80 GW to meet the demand of the gasoline-powered vehicle fleet. This figure does not include the diesel-powered transportation sector.

This 80 GW equates to 80,000 MW of photovoltaic panels fully installed.

To put things into perspective, CFE at 2026 has only 46,560 MW of installed capacity, meaning we would need about 1.7 CFEs to supply that energy.

Putting the Numbers into Action

Now, let's assume we all agree and want to do it. In that case, let's assume we have a price of $0.60 USD per Watt installed of PV, which is highly competitive, this cost doesn´t include the cost of Transmission, Substations, Distribution, etc. Its only for Generation.

This means we would only need $48,400 MUSD

We all want a clean environment, we all want our energy to be carbon-free, we all want zero pollution.

But, as Frédéric Bastiat said in his economic essay, "What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen:" “The difference between a good and a bad economist is that the former takes into account both the visible effects and the effects that must be foreseen.”

Both internal combustion engine cars and electric cars developed in parallel, but the costs of one versus the other tipped the scales in a particular direction. If we wish to shift those scales, we must consider this phrase that haunts us: “The Stone Age didn't end because stones ran out, and the oil age won't end because of a lack of oil,” by former Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum Ahmed Zaki Yamani.

We hope our dear readers will share their thoughts with us. Until next time!