Mexico Banks See Credit Slowdown Ahead of USMCA Review: Fitch

The Mexican banking system is entering a period of cooling as macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions with the United States dampen credit demand. According to a report by Fitch Ratings, the sector is adopting a “wait-and-see” approach amid the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the risk of renewed protectionist policies under a potential Donald Trump administration.

Alejandro Tapia, senior director for financial institutions, Fitch, said total loan-portfolio growth has slowed markedly. After expanding at nominal rates of 10% to 12% in 2023 and 2024, recent data show growth decelerating to around 6%. The shift reflects heightened caution among both lenders and borrowers as regional trade uncertainty weighs on investment decisions.

Trade Policy and Economic Outlook

The main source of market caution is the USMCA review scheduled for 2026. President Claudia Sheinbaum has emphasized that the process is a review rather than a full renegotiation, with the aim of concluding discussions within the year. The Mexican government is also assessing the possibility of extending the treaty for an additional 16 years.

Despite political rhetoric from Washington, Sheinbaum has said the trade relationship remains trilateral and constructive. Fitch analysts, however, note that a meaningful portion of private investment is on hold until there is greater clarity on tariffs and the future configuration of North American supply chains.

Banking Resilience and World Cup Momentum

Despite slower growth, Fitch does not foresee a sharp deterioration in the financial profiles of Mexican banks. The system continues to exhibit strong capitalization, funding, and liquidity, providing a buffer against macroeconomic shocks.

Bank executives remain cautiously optimistic about the second half of the year. Marcos Ramírez Miguel, CEO, Grupo Financiero Banorte, pointed to the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a key economic catalyst. As a co-host alongside the United States and Canada, Mexico is expected to benefit from tourism inflows and infrastructure investment. Banorte forecasts close to 10% growth in several business segments, supported by World Cup-related spending.

Fintech and Non-Bank Pressures

The slowdown is also affecting fintech companies and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). Marcela Galicia, a Fitch analyst covering NBFIs in Mexico and Central America, said digital platforms are facing pressure from a potentially softer labor market, which could weaken borrowers’ repayment capacity.

Data from the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV) show that deposits at Popular Savings and Loan Institutions (Sofipos) declined 6.4% in nominal terms between June and November 2025. Fitch attributes the drop to lower yields and seasonal factors, including the typical “January slump.” Multiple Purpose Financial Companies (Sofomes) are also confronting tighter funding conditions and higher risk premiums following high-profile defaults, including Crédito Real.

Across Latin America, Fitch expects net interest margins to come under pressure as policy rates decline. While liquidity conditions remain broadly sound, weak economic growth and country-specific political challenges are likely to constrain financial-sector expansion across the region.