Mexico Forecasts 6% Export Growth in 2025, Driven by Nearshoring

The Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) projects that Mexico's product exports will grow 6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026. This trajectory is expected to push external sales to US$700 billion next year, driven by the consolidation of nearshoring and friendshoring opportunities.

Sergio Contreras, Comce’s Executive President, said the ongoing shift in global supply chains will be key to sustaining this trend. The council forecasts that Mexico will attract US$43 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2025, followed by an estimated US$40-45 billion in 2026. Most mega-projects announced between 2020 and 2024 have concentrated in the manufacturing sector.

This  momentum is supported by the transition to Industry 4.0, which requires significant initial investments in robotics, automation and software. Globally, manufacturing was the sector that contributed the most to trade growth in the second quarter of 2025, representing 3% of total expansion, led by electrical and non-electrical machinery, precision instruments and transportation equipment.

Contreras emphasized that the upcoming review of the USMCA will be crucial to maintaining investment flows, offering new opportunities and greater certainty to the business climate in 2026. Mexico’s cumulative exports grew 6.6% through October 2025.

Strategic Economic Diversification

Contreras noted that from 2007 to 2024, Mexico demonstrated consistent progress in diversifying its production base and export markets—an essential pillar of economic resilience. In the Productive Diversification Index, Mexico (0.81) ranks similarly to Singapore (0.74), South Korea (0.84), Japan (0.88) and India (0.88).

Comce has proposed strengthening the “Made in Mexico Quality” brand as a mark of excellence, positioning the country as a reliable, competitive destination committed to sustainability and innovation.

Policy Recommendations for Impactful FDI

Contreras stressed that Mexico’s economic strategy must integrate sustainability, innovation and regional development. This requires:

• Aligning FDI attraction policies with goals such as energy transition, industrial digitalization and economic diversification.

• Incentivizing collaboration among government, foreign companies, academia and local suppliers.

• Channeling greater investment into higher value-added projects and promoting dual training programs focused on STEM fields.

• Creating conditions for exporting SMEs to integrate into global value chains linked to FDI.
   

He underscored that FDI should be measured not only by volume but by its “positive and transformative impact on our economy and our communities.”

Comce recommended linking FDI attraction to a long-term national vision, designing policies that prioritize strategic sectors, diversifying investment sources and strengthening inter-institutional coordination to advance Plan México.