Mexico Real GDP Grows 1.4% QoQ in 2Q26, Just Beating Projections

Mexico's real gross domestic product expanded 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q26, reaching MX$37.53 trillion in nominal terms and beating market expectations despite US trade policy friction. Supported by agricultural recovery, services, and manufacturing, the performance highlights underlying economic resilience while facing potential second-half deceleration. The quarterly growth impacts manufacturing, retail trade, logistics, and financial services as supply chain integration and domestic consumption shape national economic performance.

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Mexico's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 1.4% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis in 2Q26, according to a new indicator report released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). In nominal terms, GDP reached MX$37.53 trillion (US$2.06 trillion), marking a 6.3% annual expansion driven by a 2.1% year-on-year increase in real GDP and a 4.2% rise in the Implicit Price Index (IPI).

While the figures surpassed market expectations given persistent uncertainties surrounding United States trade policy, they were nevertheless lower than hoped for by government officials seeking a boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup. "Even with the World Cup, growth did not reach 2%," said Gabriela Siller, Director of Economic-Financial Analysis at Grupo Financiero Base. 

"The second half of the year will be more challenging, and there is a possibility that GDP could contract in the third quarter," added Siller. The economist emphasized that although second-quarter figures demonstrated positive sequential momentum across major economic sectors, underlying structural deceleration and external trade risks could constrain domestic economic activity during the remaining two quarters of 2026.

According to INEGI data, gross value added at basic prices totaled MX$34.79 trillion (US$1.91 trillion) during the April-June period. Tertiary activities, comprising commerce and services, represented the largest share of the national economy at 63.4%, contributing MX$22.04 trillion (US$1.21 trillion). Secondary activities, encompassing industrial manufacturing, mining, utilities, and construction, accounted for 32.6% of gross value added at MX$11.34 trillion (US$621.25 billion). Primary activities — including agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, fishing, and hunting — contributed 4.0% with MX$1.41 trillion (US$77.22 billion). Net product taxes minus subsidies added MX$2.74 trillion (US$150.22 billion) to calculate total nominal GDP at market prices.

Tertiary, Secondary, and Primary Activities Breakdown

In the tertiary sector, retail trade led all commercial and service activities by generating MX$3.68 trillion (US$201.37 billion), or 10.6% of national GDP. Wholesale trade followed with MX$3.37 trillion (US$184.69 billion), while real estate and rental services contributed MX$3.07 trillion (US$168.10 billion). Transportation, postal, and warehousing services generated MX$2.90 trillion (US$158.66 billion). Remaining service activities — including financial services, educational services, healthcare, and government administration — collectively contributed MX9.03trillion(US494.96 billion), representing 26.0% of basic-price GDP. 

Within secondary activities, manufacturing industries served as the primary industrial driver, generating MX$7.15 trillion (US$391.61 billion) to account for 20.5% of total national GDP. INEGI highlighted that within the manufacturing sector, transportation equipment manufacturing represented 21.3% and the food industry accounted for 21.0% of production, together generating 42.3% of total manufacturing value. Construction contributed MX$2.54 trillion (US$138.96 billion), representing 7.3% of national GDP, followed by mining at MX$1.19 trillion (US$65.23 billion), and electric power, water, and gas utilities at MX$464.32 billion (US$25.44 billion).

Primary sector output totaled MX$1.41 trillion (US$77.22 billion), dominated by crop agriculture at MX$961.51 billion (US$52.69 billion) and livestock production at MX$394.59 billion (US$21.62 billion).

The second-quarter results mark two consecutive quarters of annual economic growth for Mexico, building upon a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the first quarter of 2026. Based on original non-seasonally adjusted figures, real GDP's 2.1% annual growth reflected a 4.8% expansion in primary activities, a 2.3% increase in tertiary activities, and a 1.1% rise in secondary activities. 

In seasonally adjusted quarterly terms, primary activities surged 2.4%, secondary activities grew 1.6%, and tertiary activities expanded 1.4%. During 1H26, cumulative annual growth reached 2.1% for agriculture and 1.1% for services, while industrial output remained unchanged. In July, INEGI had preliminarily estimated second-quarter real GDP growth at 1.5%.

GDP Figures Linked to US Economic Performance, Policy

Mexico's economic performance continues to mirror business activity in the United States, destination for over 84% of Mexican exports. United States real GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q26, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.5%, down from 2.1% in 1Q26. Trade alerts triggered last year by United States President Donald Trump's tariffs disrupted bilateral trade expectations, but Mexico avoided recession despite GDP contractions in the second and third quarters of 2025, before recovering with a 1.8% expansion in 4Q25 to close 2025 with 0.6% overall growth.