Mexico Records 0.8% Economic Growth Under AMLO's Administration

Mexico’s economy grew by 3.2% in 2023, a decrease of seven points compared to 2022, according to the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO) administration, the country experienced a growth rate of 0.8%. 

In 2022, the GDP expanded by 3.9%, surpassing the 3.1% reported a year prior but falling slightly short of López Obrador's target of 4% set at the beginning of his term. The economy rebounded in 2021, growing by 5.7% after a pandemic-induced contraction of 8.6% in GDP in 2020. However, in 2019, the first year of AMLO's administration, GDP declined by 0.3%, according to INEGI data.

The average annual growth during the first five years of AMLO's tenure stands at 0.8%, the lowest for a similar period since Miguel de la Madrid's presidency (1982-1988), which saw a contraction of 0.2%. By comparison, Enrique Peña Nieto's administration achieved  an average growth rate of 1.9% in the first five years, while Felipe Calderón's saw 1.0%, and Vicente Fox's stood at 1.2%.

"INEGI revised the historical series of GDP, raising the growth rate for 2023 from 3.1% to 3.23%. Despite the increased economic growth, GDP per capita remains 1.5% below 2018," highlighted Gabriela Siller, Director of Economic Analysis, Banco Base.

In terms of economic activity, services recorded a growth of 3.1% in 2023, up from the previous estimate of 2.9%. The GDP of the secondary sector or industry grew by 3.5% in 2023, slightly below the previously forecasted 3.6%, while the primary sector, linked to agricultural activities, expanded by 2.1%, not 2.2% as estimated earlier.

Analysts anticipate some momentum in the first half of the year, but after the elections, they expect a slowdown that may extend into the first year of the new federal government.