Mexico Remittance Inflows Drop 5% for Sixth Consecutive Month

Mexico recorded a decline in remittance inflows for the sixth consecutive month in September, totaling US$5.21 billion (MX$97.4 billion), a decrease of 2.7% compared to the same month last year, according to Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico). This drop was driven by a 4.7% contraction in the number of transfers, partially offset by a 2.1% increase in the average remittance amount. This marks the fifth consecutive month with monthly inflows exceeding US$5 billion.

The accumulated flow of remittances for the first nine months of the year (January to September 2025) totaled US$45.68 billion, representing a contraction of 5.5% compared to the US$48.36 billion captured during the same period in 2024.

The aggregate decline impacts an estimated 4.1 million recipient families and 11.1 million individual Mexican beneficiaries. In September 2025, the average remittance received per Mexican beneficiary was US$396, the lowest amount in four months. The funds entered Mexico through 13.1 million operations, a moderation compared to the 13.8 million transactions observed in September 2024.

Remittances represent a substantial portion of income for recipient families, making the sustained contraction a matter for the domestic economy. According to BBVA Research, remittances represent 30% of the income of households that receive these resources.

The economic dependence is more pronounced when factoring in labor income, with the bank noting: "In households receiving remittances, the sum of this money from abroad plus labor income represents 65.9% of current income."

Based on estimates from the National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure (ENIGH) 2024, remittances account for more than 50% of income in 360,000 households across Mexico.

Analysts point to external factors, including US labor market dynamics and security policies, as drivers of the contraction. The strength of the Mexican peso also reduced the real value of the transfers, given an annual appreciation of the Mexican peso of 6% against the dollar, remittances experienced a fall of 11.5% in real terms (discounting inflation). This means that, when converted to the local currency, the funds purchased fewer goods compared to the previous year.

Accounting for seasonal factors, Banxico reported that remittance inflows fell at a monthly rate of 1.7% in September 2025. Conversely, seasonally adjusted outflows rose at a monthly rate of 5.3%. The seasonally adjusted superávit for September was US$5 billion, compared to US$5.1 billion in August 2025.

Transfers and Outlook

During the first nine months of 2025, 99.2% of total remittance income was sent via electronic transfers (US$45.3 billion). Of those electronic funds, 50.1% (US$22.69 billion) were sent as deposits to accounts, while 49.9% (US$22.61 billion) were collected in cash.

In contrast to the national trend, several states in the center-south region registered growth in the first nine months of the year, including: Guerrero (4.2%), Oaxaca (2.0%), Puebla (1.9%), Morelos (1.3%), Chiapas (1.2%), and Veracruz (0.9%).

Outflows by Mexican residents sending money abroad totaled US$93 million in September 2025, an annual decrease of 4.7%. This annual decrease stemmed from an 11.4% drop in the number of transfers, despite a 7.6% rise in the average sending value (US$393). For the nine-month period, outflows accumulated US$872 million, a 12.7% reduction compared to the same period in 2024. This resulted in a remittance account surplus of US$5.12 billion for the month. For the January–September period, the accumulated surplus was US$44.81 billion, a 5.4% annual decline. The accumulated superávit for the last twelve months (October 2024–September 2025) stood at US$60.89 billion.

BBVA’s forecast is that remittances will register an annual decrease of 5.8% this year, with full-year figures near US$61.0 billion.