Mexico Remittances Drop 16.2% in June, Worst Since 2012

Mexican households received US$5.2 billion in remittances in June, marking a 16.2% year-over-year decline, the sharpest annual drop in monthly remittances since September 2012, according to data from Mexico’s Central Bank.

The downturn comes amid stricter US immigration policies and increased labor enforcement. Analysts from Banorte and Jesús Cervantes González, director of the remittances forum at the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (Cemla), linked the decline to a weakening labor market for undocumented Mexican workers in the United States, including workplace raids by the National Guard.

“Indicators show reduced employment among Mexican immigrants in the United States, likely due to both lower demand and fear of deportation,” said Cervantes González. “While deportations have not significantly reduced labor supply, fear is clearly affecting labor force participation.”

The number of remittance transactions also fell. Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) reported 12.7 million transactions in June—1.2 million fewer than in May. However, the average amount per transaction rose to US$409, the highest level since August 2023.

Between January to June 2025, remittances totaled US$29.6 billion, down from US$31.3 billion during the same period in 2024. Only January and March saw month-over-month increases; February, April, May, and June all posted declines.

For the 12 months ending in June, remittance flows totaled US$62.9 billion, lower than the US$64 billion reported the previous month. The decline also coincided with a 5.2% appreciation of the Mexican peso against the US dollar, which reduced the real purchasing power of remittances by 15.3% in June, according to Alberto Ramos, Latin America economist, Goldman Sachs.

Analysts from Banorte, BBVA, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs warned of continued downside risks in remittance inflows for the rest of the year. Ongoing US immigration enforcement and potential financial compliance measures such as anti–money laundering regulations—were cited as key concerns.