Mexico’s 2024 Remittances Record at Risk from Trump Policies

In 2024, Mexico received US$64.7 billion in remittances, setting a new record for annual inflows, according to Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico). This marked a 2.25% increase compared to the US$63.3 billion received in 2023, which was also a record at the time.

These remittances more than doubled the US$28.4 billion generated by Mexico’s oil exports in 2024. The funds sent by millions of Mexican workers abroad provided support to 1.8 million households across the country. Although remittances reached a historic high in 2024, their growth rate has moderated since 2022.

Between 2021 and 2022, high inflation eroded the purchasing power of remittances, leading senders to increase their contributions. Remittance growth was 25.9% in 2021 and 12.1% in 2022, as reported by Banxico. However, as inflation decreased from its peak of 8.7% in September 2022 to 4.2% by December 2024, the growth rate of remittances began to slow.

In December 2024, Mexico received US$5.2 billion in remittances, continuing a four-month streak of monthly inflows above US$5 billion. However, this figure marked the lowest monthly total in nine months, reflecting a 4.9% year-over-year decline compared to December 2023.

Throughout 2024, remittances showed annual declines in six months:

• March: 3.4% decrease

• May and July: 1% decrease

• September: 4.6% decrease (the largest decline)

• October: 1.6% decrease

• December: 4.9% decrease

Despite these declines, there were six months in 2024 when remittances exceeded US$5 billion, including March, April, May, July, and September.

The highest monthly inflows occurred in:

• June: US$6.2 billion (the highest of the year)

• August: US$6.08 billion

On the other hand, January and February recorded the lowest monthly inflows, with US$4.57 billion and US$4.49 billion, respectively. Banxico reported that 99.1% of remittances were sent via electronic transfers, with just US$481 million (0.7%) arriving in cash.

A major concern is the potential impact of former President Trump’s immigration policies, which may reduce the number of Mexican workers in the United States and consequently limit remittance growth. Banorte analysts have pointed to worker shortages in sectors such as agriculture, construction, and services, which are linked to stricter immigration enforcement.