Mexico's Debt to Hit 60.7% of GDP in Sheinbaum's First Year

Mexico’s public debt is projected to reach 60.7% of GDP during the first year of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, marking the highest level in six years, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest Fiscal Monitor.

The report, released ahead of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, includes all government obligations, such as those held by the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the National Infrastructure Fund, and the National Surety and Insurance Corporation.

The IMF estimates that Mexico’s debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 61.1% in 2026 and remain at that level through 2030. This increase is attributed to higher interest payments and rising borrowing costs, driven by tighter credit conditions and tariffs.

Despite the upward trajectory, Mexico’s projected debt ratio remains below the emerging market average of 73.6% of GDP.

The IMF’s forecasts have drawn skepticism from the Mexican government. President Sheinbaum dismissed the Fund’s prediction of a 0.3% economic contraction in 2025, asserting that her administration has a plan to bolster economic performance.