Mexico’s Economic Activity Grew by 2.8% In January: INEGI

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported in its Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) that the secondary and tertiary sectors of the Mexican economy grew, propelling forecasts of annual economic growth.

The IOAE anticipates an increase of 2.8% in the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) at an annual rate thanks to the growth in secondary and tertiary activities of 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively, in January 2023. The estimates presented confidence intervals of 95% for the months of December 2022 and January 2023, explained INEGI via a press release. 

IOAE’s results are presented the third week of each month at an annual growth rate for the immediately preceding month and for the month before, while IGAE’s results are presented eight weeks after the end of the reference month. The indicators gather data from high frequency and opportunity variables and internet search reports, such as Google Trends or physical mobility population indicators. 

IGAE grew by 0.2% from December 2022 to January 2023 according to its nowcasting model. During the same period, secondary activities presented the same growth rate of 3.1%, while secondary activities stood at 2.5%, increasing its growth rate by 0.4%. 

INEGI explained that based on IOAE estimates, IGAE increased 0.4% with respect to December 2022. Regarding the secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy, calculations indicate monthly increases of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. The secondary and tertiary sectors comprise the largest components of the IGAE, according to INEGI. 

The IOAE is built from a nowcasting model, which provides timely estimates regarding a set of macroeconomic indicators. The full report on INEGI’s IOAE can be found here. 

INEGI presented its IOAE in December 2022, which indicated a 2.7% annual growth rate forecast. INEGI explained that secondary and tertiary activities grew by 1.2% during the month according to seasonally adjusted figures. However, the IOAE fell by 0.4% in comparison to November 2022, as INEGI attributed the drop to a 0.6% reduction of the secondary and tertiary sectors, as reported by MBN.