Mexico's economy continues to showcase resilience, defying challenges and maintaining stable projections for the upcoming quarters, according to Credit Suisse analysts. Mexico's inflation is expected to decrease further in the coming months, paving the way for a gradual shift in the central bank's approach. Experts anticipate a series of interest rate cuts starting in the fourth quarter of 2023.
"Mexico stands out as one of the few major emerging economies with an investment-grade status, bolstered by its strict fiscal policies, a credible and independent central bank, a functioning economy and a narrative that attracts international investment," reads an analysis by Credit Suisse's Investment Strategy Department. Despite challenges such as disagreements between branches of government, ongoing violence and crime, financial difficulties faced by state-owned oil company PEMEX and concerns over infrastructure projects, Mexico's economy remains robust, with positive macroeconomic indicators. The country has witnessed steady growth in its nominal GDP, outperforming Brazil and indicating its increasing economic strength.
"The Mexican economy has demonstrated stability and benefited from a strong Mexican peso and significant inflows of foreign investment, reflecting positive market sentiment," reads the report.
For 2023, Credit Suisse revised its projection for Mexico's real GDP growth, raising it from 1.5% to 2.3%, riven by a stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter. The forecast predicts a quarterly growth rate of 0.1% from the second to the third quarter, with relatively flat results expected in the fourth quarter. Although private consumption and investment may experience a slowdown, neither is expected to contract annually this year. "Investment expenditures in 2023 compared to the previous year is conservative, yet real gross fixed investment is projected to grow by 3% due to arithmetic reasons," reads the report.
For 2024, Credit Suisse adjusted its forecast for real GDP growth to 1.7%, down from the initial projection of 2.0%. This adjustment accounts for a higher base of comparison in 2023. The report expects a return to trend for macroeconomic variables next year, with potential lower interest rates stimulating investment and consumption in the second half of 2024. The performance of the US economy will play a crucial role in influencing Mexico's growth prospects. "We maintain an optimistic outlook for inflation, anticipating a further decrease in the coming months," reads the report.
While risks remain, including the potential impact of a global recession, PEMEX's contingent liabilities and future policy decisions taken by the next administration, Mexico's current economic trajectory appears favorable, positioning it as a promising investment destination in the emerging market landscape.