Moody’s Lowers Mexico Growth; Afore Outflows Rise; Bitcoin Falls

This week in financial news: Moody’s Ratings has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Mexico downward, now expecting GDP to expand 1.2%, compared with its 1.7% projection in August. Meanwhile, data from the National Commission for the Retirement Savings System (Consar) shows that workers withdrew MX$31.814 billion (US$1.72 billion) from Afores in the first 10 months of the year, surpassing the MX$30.728 billion withdrawn in all of 2024.

In other developments, Bitcoin fell below US$90,000 on Monday for the first time in seven months, extending a decline that has wiped out more than US$600 billion in market value.

More news below:

Moody’s Lowers Mexico’s 2026 Forecast Amid Trade Uncertainty

Moody's Ratings has revised downward its 2026 economic growth projections for Mexico and France in its latest Global Economic Outlook for 2026 and 2027. The agency now expects Mexico’s GDP to expand 1.2%, down from 1.7% forecast in August, while France’s estimate was cut to 0.9% from 1.2%. Both projections sit below the 1.5% average growth anticipated for G-20 economies, which together represent more than 80% of global GDP.

Afore Unemployment Claims Hit Record as Withdrawals Rise 24%

Withdrawals from Afores (Mexican Retirement Fund Administrators) due to unemployment have already exceeded the total withdrawn in all of last year, reaching a record high for a January–October period. According to data from the National Commission for the Retirement Savings System (Consar), workers withdrew MX$31.814 billion (US$1.72 billion) for unemployment during the first 10 months of the year, surpassing the MX$30.728 billion withdrawn throughout 2024. The amount reflects a 24% increase compared with the same period last year.

Bitcoin Wipes Out 2025 Gains as Price Falls Under US$90,000

Bitcoin has entered a bear market, falling more than 28% from its recent record high and wiping out all gains for the year. The cryptocurrency dropped below US$90,000 (MX$1.65 million) on Monday for the first time in seven months, extending a slide that has erased over US$600 billion in market value, according to CoinMarketCap data. 

IMF Cuts Mexico’s Flexible Credit Line to US$24 Billion

Mexico's Exchange Commission, chaired by Treasury Minister Edgar Amador, announced that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has renewed the country's Flexible Credit Line (FCL) for two more years. The renewed line totals roughly US$24 billion (MX$440 billion), marking Mexico’s eleventh FCL arrangement since 2009. The new amount reflects a reduction from the roughly US$35 billion in place since November 2023. 

COP30 Delays Funding Goal to 2035, Pledges Higher Climate Financing

At COP30, nations agreed to increase climate financing for developing countries but postponed the expanded funding target from 2030 to 2035. The final declaration commits wealthier countries to provide at least US$300 billion annually by 2035, with an aspirational goal of mobilizing US$1.3 trillion per year from public and private sources.