Fourth COVID-19 Wave Begins to Decline

New findings by the Ministry of Health led experts to predict that the peak of the fourth COVID-19 wave might have already passed, as numbers are rapidly decreasing nationwide.

Epidemiologic reports from Jan. 16-22 show a 31 percent decline in confirmed COVID-19 cases, the most pronounced fall since the beginning of the fourth wave at the start of 2022. This decrease represented a reduction of over 28,000 active cases in the country, which reported a total of 267,929 active cases last Sunday. Deaths, however, continue rising and approaching two per 100,000 residents, still well below past waves.

Arturo Ederly, Professor of Mathematics Sciences, Superior Studies Acatlán UNAM, was reluctant to call the numbers a definite decline but called them the beginning of one. Ederly pointed out that some EU countries have seen descents that have come with unexpected rises due to the highly contagious Omicron variant. Omicron waves have proved to be severely different from those of other strains in their rapid rise and lower hospitality and death rates. Ederly also warns about a delayed decline in death rates which, following current trends, is expected to be three to four weeks behind infection trends.

Weekend reports tend to report less cases due to the lower number of tests administered during Saturday and Sunday. However, the Monday following the Ministry of Health’s report saw a continuation of the decreasing trend with 12,521 cases reported, further pointing to a continued decrease in cases.

Hospital occupation has also risen but not past 47 percent of all general beds, with ventilator occupation at 29 percent. This is also well below the numbers for past waves. The latest wave passes without hospitals seeing a crisis of patient overflows, which in previous waves left many patients unable to access medical attention. This wave has seen the smallest number of hospitalizations despite having the largest number of cases because Omicron is less likely to travel to a patient’s lungs, so fewer patients require hospitalization and ventilators.

The country’s vaccination campaign also continues to develop favorably, with 83.61 million individuals receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (66 percent of the country’s population) and 77.13 million having received both doses (60 percent of the country’s population). These numbers account for 89 percent of Mexico’s adult population. The country, however, has been hesitant to lower the minimum age of vaccination for non-at-risk youth despite several countries worldwide vaccinating young children.