Mexico Adds Average of 150 Cases Every Day

The Ministry of Health confirmed 13 new deaths from COVID-19, bringing the total to 50, while 132 more positive cases were recorded in 24 hours. This brings the number of confirmed cases to 1,510, the ministry’s Director of Epidemiology José Luis Alomía reported. The officer explained that the largest number of confirmed cases is still registered among young adults with an average age of 43. Mexico City presents the highest concentration of cases with 327 confirmed. It is also the presents the majority of the country’s deaths, with 14. Alomía said that there is still no accelerated growth of the virus, and that since last week, an average of 150 daily cases have been added. As of today, 7,822 have tested negative for the virus. “Being an older adult will continue to be a risk factor for developing the disease,” he said.

As of Thursday, April 2

132         new cases (from yesterday)

1,510     confirmed cases nationwide

4,653     under investigation

50           deaths

Impact on markets (19.45 hrs)

US Dollar              MX$24.10            (-1.56%)

BMV IPC               33,590.62             (-0.30%)

Dow Jones          21,188.36             (1.17%)

Mexican oil jumps 51.27 percent

The Mexican crude oil basket rose 51.27 percent prompted by possible cuts in oil production announced by US President Donald Trump, in the face of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia. A barrel of Mexican basket is trading at US$16.05 per barrel, according to PEMEX. President Trump said this morning that he spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed bin Salman, so he expects that both the Arab nation and Russia will lower their oil production by 10 million barrels.

Business leaders gather in National Palace

After a four-hour meeting, representatives of the private sector and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador agreed to guarantee full salaries to workers in April and to coordinate an agenda to protect employment. Business Coordinating Council (CCE) head Carlos Salazar, Mexican Business Council head Antonio Del Valle, Association of Banks of Mexico head Luis Niño de Rivera and CONCAMIN head Francisco Cervantes attended the meeting held today in the National Palace. Next Sunday, President López Obrador will present the Economic Recovery Plan.

Development banks support

The federal government presented a 15 action program worth MX$63.7 billion to rescue the economy, which will be allocated by development banks. Restructuring credits, rescheduling payments, applying new terms, suspending collections and giving new credits stand out among actions to secure cash flow for companies in the infrastructure sector. Banobras, Nafin, Bancomext, along with Banco del Bienestar and private banks, will manage the stimulus program.

BoFa trims GDP forecast

The sharp plunge in global oil prices and poor domestic economic activity is still impacting Mexico’s growth estimations, said the Bank of America (BofA) placed as it announced its negative forecast for the Mexican economy this year. The BofA predicted an  8 percent contraction in 2020, almost doubling the 4.5 percent plunge foreseen in the prior estimation. The US bank expects the Mexican economy to grow 4.5 percent in 2021, parallel to a recovery of the US economy.

Fitch expects 4 percent GDP contraction

Fitch expects the Mexican economy to contract 4 percent in 2020, a sharp adjustment from the 1 percent growth estimation disclosed on March 5. The rating agency forecast that consumption will drop 3.6 percent, fixed investment will plunge 10 percent and that inflation will rise 3.5 percent. Fitch expects it  5.5 percent interest rate by the end of the year, while the exchange rate will recover from the current levels to end December at US$21.50 pesos per dollar.

Barclays lowers GDP expectation

The British bank Barclays expects a contraction of the Mexican economy of 5 percent during 2020, greater than the 2 percent fall previously anticipated. Analysts at the financial institution said the latest data suggests that exports from Latin America's second largest economy could suffer a shock in April. The bank anticipated that Mexico's GDP will recover 1 percent by 2021, once the impact of the pandemic on the local economy is over.

Aerobus reduce operations

Given the closure of borders, Viva Aerobus will reduce its operations by 50 to 70 percent. The Mexican airline explained that the adjustment will be made through the reduction of flights frequencies and in some cases a temporary suspension of routes.