Scaling Interventions Could Reduce NCD Burden: McKinsey

Every year, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including heart disease, diabetes, cancer and mental health conditions, account for about 46 million deaths and 768 million years lived in poor health. Without decisive action, the global toll could rise to 75 million annual deaths and 1.1 billion years lived in poor health by 2050, according to new findings from the McKinsey Health Institute (MHI).

“Noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions are silent killers, robbing us of lives and innovation,” says Tedros Adhanom, Director General, WHO. “Investing in the fight against NCDs is not just smart economics — it is an urgent necessity for thriving societies.”

The rising prevalence of NCDs poses not only a health crisis but also a significant economic challenge. By 2050, the cost of NCDs is projected to reduce global GDP by US$36 trillion, representing 20% of expected output. The economic drag comes from lost labor due to premature deaths, long-term illness, absenteeism, and reduced productivity across workforces, reports MHI. 

Despite the scale of the challenge, MHI’s analysis suggests that the curve can be altered. Expanding access to more than 220 evidence-based and cost-effective interventions, ranging from tobacco control to preventive screenings and emerging therapies, could address about 35% of the global NCD and mental health burden. This effort could prevent 28 million deaths each year and add 396 million years of healthy life by 2050.

For individuals, the impact translates into an average of 15 additional healthy days annually. For populations, the benefit extends to longer lifespans and improved quality of life, reversing the generational trend of increasing years lived in poor health.

The economic implications are equally substantial. MHI estimates that scaling interventions could add US$11 trillion to global GDP by 2050, equivalent to 6% of projected output. Every dollar invested could generate a return of four dollars by reducing absenteeism, minimizing presenteeism, lowering the need for informal caregiving, and enabling longer labor force participation.

The Burden of NCDs in Mexico

Recent data shows alarming trends in the prevalence of NCDs among Mexican adults. From 2018 to 2022, the percentage of adults with hypertension surged from 34.10% to 47.80%. This condition significantly increases the risk of heart disease and stroke, as reported by Mexico’s Ministry of Health (SSA).

Similarly, the prevalence of diabetes has seen a notable increase. In 2018, 14.40% of Mexican adults were diagnosed with diabetes. By 2022, this figure had risen to 18.30%. “In Mexico, diabetes is considered a health crisis, and its prevalence is increasing especially after COVID-19,” says  Karla Alcazar, President and General Manager, Eli Lilly Latin America, to MBN.

Meanwhile, obesity, a major risk factor for both hypertension and diabetes, also remains a significant public health issue. The percentage of obese adults in Mexico increased from 35.30% in 2018 to 36.90% in 2022. 

Chronic disease care in Mexico is shifting toward a more integrated ecosystem driven by digital health tools, precision medicine, and preventive strategies. Pharmaceutical companies are positioned to lead this transformation by scaling proven solutions: maintaining access to mature medicines, expanding the adoption of digital health tools, advancing precision drug discovery, and implementing preventive interventions at the population level.