HSBC Flags Project Viability as Growth Bottleneck

HSBC says Mexico’s main growth bottleneck is no longer a lack of capital, but a shortage of bankable infrastructure projects. As the federal government rolls out its 2026-2030 investment plan, the key challenge will be turning announced projects into executable opportunities that can attract private financing and support economic growth.

After a year of weak economic expansion, HSBC Mexico believes one of the main obstacles holding back the country is not a shortage of liquidity, but a shortage of viable projects. Jorge Arce, CEO, HSBC Mexico, says the key constraint in 2025 was that there were no viable projects, while investors were also waiting to see whether the available structures would be acceptable for both public and private capital. Arce’s perspective is that the landscape is changing as the federal government rolls out its new infrastructure agenda.

In the context of the 89th Banking Convention, Arce says the government’s infrastructure plans could help trigger a new investment cycle in 2026, particularly as lower interest rates improve financing conditions. Mexico’s economy expanded 0.8% in 2025, according to recent figures cited by MBN, reinforcing the sense that the country needs new engines of growth beyond trade momentum and nearshoring expectations.

For HSBC, the change is significant because the conversation is moving from uncertainty to project viability. Arce states that the country has projects and that there is now an investment framework acceptable for both the public and private sectors. That matters because banks can deploy capital only when projects are sufficiently mature, risk-sharing is defined and financing structures are investable. In that sense, the bank’s message is that Mexico’s challenge is no longer simply to attract interest, but to translate official plans into bankable pipelines.

Energy stands out as HSBC’s clearest area of interest. Arce shares that the projects recently presented by the government include 26GW of energy developments, requiring major investments, Arce  describes that pipeline as especially robust. He argues that energy projects are critical because they can raise productivity across the wider economy, especially at a time when electricity supply and reliability have become central concerns for manufacturers, logistics operators and industrial developers seeking to expand in Mexico.

That focus also fits the broader structure of the federal infrastructure plan. The government’s 2026-2030 Infrastructure Investment Plan foresees MX$5.6 trillion (US$323.12 billion), in public and mixed investment through 2030, with MX$722 billion scheduled for 2026 alone. The program spans eight strategic sectors: energy, railways, highways, ports, health, water, education and airports, with energy taking the largest share of projected spending.

Beyond energy, HSBC is also reviewing opportunities in ports and highways; sectors Arce identifies as especially relevant for the country’s logistics performance. Better port connectivity and road infrastructure would help address long-standing supply chain bottlenecks and improve trade flows at a time when Mexico is trying to convert nearshoring interest into real operating capacity. Arce is more cautious on passenger rail, however, suggesting that these projects present more complex profitability dynamics for private financiers.

MBN reported that the 2026-2030 plan faces risks tied to financing clarity, legal certainty, public-sector capacity, security conditions and the need for clearer risk-sharing rules. Those concerns are consistent with a broader market view: announcements alone do not guarantee investment if permits are delayed, project design is incomplete or the terms of participation are not clear enough for lenders and developers.

That is where Arce’s argument implies that capital is available if the right conditions are in place. Mexico’s banking system has the balance sheet capacity to participate, and lower rates from Banco de México improve the financing backdrop, but investment still depends on whether projects can move from presentation to execution.

The country has continued to benefit from strong trade with the United States and sustained interest from companies seeking to diversify production away from Asia, but analysts have warned that unreliable power, insufficient logistics capacity and years of underinvestment have kept Mexico from fully capturing that opportunity. Reuters stated on March 12 that infrastructure shortfalls and power constraints remain among the structural reasons why nearshoring momentum has not translated into stronger domestic growth.