Infrastructure Gap Caps Mexico’s Trade Growth: COMCE Northeast

Mexico’s record trade growth faces a structural ceiling due to logistics performance ranking 66th globally and 91% of Northeast firms reporting energy supply gaps. These bottlenecks, coupled with a specialized customs talent deficit and the mandatory April 1, 2026, Electronic Value Manifest, create significant operational and financial risks for the manufacturing, automotive, and logistics sectors. Addressing these infrastructure and regulatory constraints is essential for Mexico to capitalize on nearshoring and the objectives of Plan México.

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Mexico ranks 66th out of 141 countries on the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index, a position that poses a challenge to the country’s ambitions to maintain sustained trade growth, notes the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment, and Technology of the Northeast (COMCE Northeast). The council stressed the importance of addressing infrastructure gaps, as half of Mexico’s trade with the United States is concentrated across just five land border crossings.

Javier Cendejas, President, COMCE Northeast, reported that the Mexican foreign trade sector faces structural challenges related to infrastructure, energy supply, and a deficit of specialized human capital. Cendejas noted that while Mexican exports reached US$664.8 billion in 2025, representing a 7.6% annual growth, further expansion remains contingent on addressing logistical and regulatory bottlenecks. The Northeast region, comprising Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, generates 45% of the country's total export value.

The council highlighted that roads are the primary channel for Mexican trade, as 55% of exports to the United States, around US$25.377 billion in November 2025, cross through five main border points. Laredo remains the most active port, handling US$19.6 billion in trade during that month alone, followed by Eagle Pass at US$2.47 billion and Nogales at US$1.62 billion. These volumes highlight the strategic importance of the country's trade corridors, which connect major manufacturing hubs like Monterrey, Chihuahua, and Guadalajara directly to the United States highway system. 

Despite this volume, Mexico ranks 66th out of 141 countries in the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index. Infrastructure limitations are compounded by energy supply issues, as 91% of companies report difficulties in securing reliable electricity within industrial parks, and 40% face similar obstacles regarding natural gas supply, which affects the country’s capacity to attract investment under the nearshoring trend.

This logistical concern is shared by Rodolfo Mitchel, Chief Economist, Scotiabank, who stated during the IMEF Energy and Infrastructure 2025 forum that Mexico is not yet ready to fully capitalize on Plan México or nearshoring. Mitchel emphasized that inadequate infrastructure and frequent power outages, cited consistently in Banxico surveys, remain the primary barriers preventing companies from continuing investments. “It is a priority to promote the construction and modernization of strategic infrastructure to improve connectivity, reduce costs, and ensure energy supply across all regions of the country,” reads Banxico's 3Q25 Regional Economies report.

Energy Supply Risks in the Northeast Powerhouse

The Northeast region, which accounts for 45.8% of Mexico's total exports, is currently facing a severe energy supply crisis that threatens its industrial competitiveness. This area is the most energy-demanding in the country, representing 28% of all national electrical connection requests with 1,077 petitions filed between January and October 2025, according to COMCE Northeast. However, 91% of firms in the region report significant difficulties in securing a reliable electricity supply within industrial parks. 

Furthermore, 40% of these parks report deficiencies in natural gas distribution, a factor that COMCE Noreste identifies as a direct limit on Mexico's ability to attract and sustain new investments under the nearshoring model. “Clients already understand that if an area does not have sufficient energy, they will have to produce it on-site. To produce energy sustainably and without affecting the operation's economy, they will need to use natural gas. Expanding the natural gas network would solve many problems and eliminate doubts for potential clients,” said Misael Pencina, COO, Centinela Properties, in an interview with MBN.

Regulatory Challenges Add Further Pressure

Regulatory changes also present a significant administrative burden. Starting April 1, 2026, the Electronic Value Manifest (MVE) will become mandatory through the Mexican Foreign Trade Single Window (VUCEM). COMCE Northeast noted that this requirement increases the demand for specialized talent, which is currently in short supply. “Additionally, the customs and logistics knowledge base is shifting. Experienced traffic managers are retiring, and the new generation often lacks deep expertise. Many traffic managers are under 30 and still learning the system, creating operational risks and highlighting the need for strong partners and ongoing training,” added Antonio Arranz, CEO, DHL Express Mexico, in an interview with MBN.

Approximately 95% of exporting firms already outsource part of their trade and supply chain operations. The new regulations imply that companies may need at least five managerial-level collaborators specialized in customs, with average monthly salaries of MX$51,000. Non-compliance or inconsistencies in these transmissions can result in fines ranging from 80% to 120% of the commercial value of the goods, as well as the potential seizure of assets. 

Companies' Needs Are No Longer the Same

The requirements of industrial clients have shifted significantly over the past two decades. While an industrial building was sufficient in the 2000s due to a supply shortage, modern tenants in the nearshoring era now prioritize flexible, tailored spaces. This evolution comes in hand with stricter infrastructure needs, Pencina noted. “Clients first evaluate the availability of industrial space, workforce supply, infrastructure, connectivity, and roads. They use this checklist to analyze and decide on the most suitable zone,” he adds.