USMCA Uncertainty Reshapes Industrial Demand: CBRE

CBRE reported record industrial leasing in the Mexico City metropolitan area during the first half of 2026, driven by logistics, technology manufacturing, and strong foreign investment. While uncertainty surrounding the USMCA continues to delay some automotive projects, the consultancy expects industrial demand to recover gradually as trade conditions stabilize.

Mexico’s industrial real estate market continues to expand despite uncertainty surrounding the review of the USMCA. CBRE’s 2Q26 reports show record leasing activity in the Mexico City metropolitan area, a growing construction pipeline and renewed interest in projects linked to technology and diversified manufacturing. However, automotive companies remain more cautious as they await greater clarity on North American trade policy.

Mexico’s industrial real estate sector entered 2026 with sustained demand, but investors and tenants became more selective as the USMCA review, tariffs, and slower manufacturing decisions created uncertainty. Rather than stopping expansion, these conditions have redirected demand toward logistics, light manufacturing, and sectors considered less exposed to potential trade-policy changes.  

USMCA Remains in Force as Companies Adjust Strategies

CBRE stresses that the USMCA remains fully in force and that no changes are being implemented regarding rules of origin, tariffs, investment, energy, or labor regulations. Although the agreement’s 16-year extension has been postponed, it has not been discarded. CBRE notes that the three countries could still confirm the extension through Article 34.7.4 of the treaty.

Annual reviews are creating structural uncertainty, as companies are adjusting their investment decisions based on the possibility of recurring negotiations and policy changes, even when the agreement’s current provisions remain unchanged.

CBRE has begun recording a recovery in medium-term industrial real estate projects, particularly those connected to the technology cluster. In contrast, most automotive projects remain in wait-and-see mode. This caution is consistent with the broader market environment, reports MBN. Industrial demand has remained resilient, but occupiers are prioritizing flexibility, operational efficiency and access to established logistics corridors while delaying some long-term capital commitments.  

CBRE expects demand to recover gradually, beginning with light manufacturing across a wider range of sectors. Once greater certainty returns, heavy manufacturing could regain the activity levels recorded before the USMCA renegotiation cycle, following a pattern similar to that observed during the renegotiation of NAFTA.

Mexico-US trade volumes, meanwhile, continue growing as companies reorganize supply chains during a broader period of global economic and geopolitical realignment.

Technology and Diversified Manufacturing Gain Ground

Mexico’s active tenant requirements are shifting toward a more diversified manufacturing base. The share corresponding to diversified manufacturing increased by 10.6 percentage points, while logistics and transportation rose by 6.6 percentage points.

Technology-related industries are also becoming increasingly relevant. Mexico, Taiwan, and Vietnam have expanded their participation as sources of US computer and technology imports, reflecting the development of supply chains related to semiconductors, AI, and data centers.

The trend could support demand for specialized manufacturing plants, warehouses, and data infrastructure in Mexico. These projects generally require reliable electricity, water, connectivity, and access to skilled workers, making infrastructure availability an increasingly important factor in industrial site selection.

Mexico also maintains a strong position in vehicles and auto parts trade with the United States, reinforcing its role as a central platform in North America’s automotive supply chain. However, CBRE says automotive trade volumes appear to have reached a plateau during the current economic cycle.

The contrast between technology-related activity and automotive caution suggests that Mexico’s industrial market is becoming more diversified. Logistics and manufacturing demand remain closely linked to the United States, but future growth may increasingly come from electronics, computing equipment, data centers, and other advanced industries.

Mexico City Inventory Grows

The Class A industrial inventory in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area reached 12.97 million m2 at the end of the second quarter of 2026. The market incorporated 348,146m² of new supply during the quarter. Compared with the second quarter of 2025, inventory increased by 8.3%, equivalent to more than 900,000m² added over the past 12 months.

New supply was concentrated in the Zumpango-AIFA corridor, which accounted for 63% of the space delivered. The Cuautitlan-Tepotzotlan-Tultitlan (CTT) corridor represented 23%, while last-mile submarkets accounted for 14%. CBRE estimates that at least another 700,000m² could be incorporated by the end of 2026, bringing total inventory to approximately 13.67 million m2.

The expansion reflects continued confidence among developers, although new projects are increasingly concentrated in locations with access to transportation infrastructure, available land, and established logistics operations.

Construction Accelerates With 70% Pre-Leased

More than 500,000m² of industrial construction began during the second quarter of 2026. About 70% of this space had already been pre-leased, with deliveries expected over the following six months. The high pre-leasing rate reduces speculative exposure and indicates that much of the construction pipeline responds to identifiable tenant demand rather than expectations of future occupancy.

Zumpango-AIFA accounted for 58% of the projects that began construction, followed by Cuautitlan with 20% and Vallejo-Azcapotzalco with 9%. 

Asking rents for properties under construction ranged from US$8.00/m² to US$12.50/m² per month, with a weighted average of US$9.93/m². CBRE expects available land in Zumpango-AIFA and Huehuetoca-Tepeji to continue supporting development. Additional projects have also been announced in Tlalnepantla, Cuautitlan, Hidalgo, Iztapalapa-Tlahuac, and Tepotzotlan.

Leasing Activity Reaches First-Half Record

Gross demand, or total space commercialized, reached 1.01 million m2 during the first half of 2026, increasing by 59% from the same period of 2025. CBRE described the result as the highest leasing volume ever recorded during a first half in the Mexico City metropolitan industrial market.

Pre-leasing agreements generated 53% of total activity, while new transactions accounted for 28% and renewals represented 16%.

The Zumpango-AIFA corridor led commercial activity with a 44% share, followed by CTT with 39%. Net demand reached 358,979m², compared with 439,265m² during the first half of 2025. CBRE expects net absorption to increase as pre-leased properties currently under construction are completed and officially incorporated into the inventory.

The figures support the view that the market continues to generate demand despite greater caution. Leasing decisions have not disappeared, but many are being concentrated in pre-arranged developments and established submarkets rather than purely speculative projects.

Vacancy Increases as New Supply Enters Market

The vacancy rate rose to 5.1% during the first half of 2026, representing approximately 656,000m² of available space. The rate was 3.5 percentage points higher than at the end of the second quarter of 2025. CBRE attributed the increase primarily to tenant departures and the delivery of new buildings that still contained available space.

CTT concentrated 65% of the metropolitan area’s vacant industrial space. Zumpango-AIFA represented 15%, while last-mile markets accounted for 10%.

The increase in vacancy does not necessarily indicate a collapse in demand. It coincides with rapid inventory expansion and record gross leasing activity, suggesting the market is absorbing a significant construction pipeline while tenants become more selective.

Logistics Accounts for 63% of Commercialized Space

Logistics remained the main driver of the Mexico City industrial market during the first half of 2026, accounting for 63% of commercialized space. E-commerce represented 33%, while manufacturing accounted for 5%.

During the 2Q26, South Korean companies represented 23% of businesses establishing or renewing operations. French companies followed with 21%, Mexican firms with 19% and Argentine companies with 14%. CBRE expects logistics to continue leading demand during the rest of the year. Many projects under development have been designed specifically for distribution, fulfillment and supply chain operations.

The concentration of activity in Zumpango-AIFA and CTT reflects the importance of highway connectivity, access to Mexico City’s consumer base and proximity to major distribution networks.

Foreign Investment Supports Industrial Expansion

Mexico received US$23.59 billion in foreign direct investment during the 1Q26, according to preliminary figures from the Ministry of Economy. The result represented a 10.4% increase from the same period of 2025. The United States remained the largest source of investment, accounting for 43% of total FDI, followed by Spain with 16%.

Mexico City led the country with US$11.78 billion in investment, while the State of Mexico ranked second with US$1.98 billion.

These flows continue supporting demand for industrial and logistics facilities across the metropolitan area, particularly from companies seeking access to the country’s largest consumer market and its central transportation network.

CBRE expects the market to remain stable during the remainder of 2026, supported by foreign investment, strong pre-leasing activity, and a diversified supply of industrial space.