Actionable Intelligence: The New Map of Logistics Risk in Mexico

In international logistics and supply chain management, risk is not an abstract concept. It is reflected in financial statements, technical premiums, operational disruptions, and investment decisions. When an industry accumulates billions in claims payments, the conversation stops being preventive and becomes structural.

According to consolidated information shared by the Asociación Latinoamericana de Suscriptores Marítimos (ALSUM), between 2010 and 2024 the Mexican insurance sector accumulated more than US$4.008 billion in reported cargo insurance losses. Fifteen years of data clearly show that risk has shifted from occasional to statistical.

Recent years illustrate the trend:

2020: US$69.3 million (–80.37% vs. 2019) — pandemic effect

2021: US$256.9 million (+270.62% vs. 2020) — criminal reconfiguration

2022: US$314.5 million (+22.39%)

2023: US$368.7 million (+17.23%)

2024: US$406.0 million (+10.12%)

The conclusion is unequivocal: Mexico’s logistics chain is riskier today than it was 15 years ago. In this environment, the insurance sector has functioned as a financial shock absorber, absorbing impacts that otherwise would have paralyzed entire operations.

However, loss ratios are the result. To understand structural pressure, we must examine the main trigger: cargo theft in ground transportation.

Cargo Theft: Volume, Violence, Geographic Concentration

In 2025, cargo theft in Mexico generated losses exceeding MX$7 billion (US$405 million), with nearly 16,000 recorded incidents, reaching record levels. Sixty-eight percent of incidents involved violence, redefining risk not only as financial but also human and operational, according to reports by El Economista and transportation associations.

States such as State of Mexico, Puebla, and Guanajuato account for the highest incidence due to their strategic position within Mexico’s most important industrial and commercial corridors. This geographic concentration is not accidental; it reflects logistics density, critical highway infrastructure and the high value of goods in transit.

From a business perspective, this means risk is no longer diffuse. It has precise coordinates.

The phenomenon does not affect only large corporations. The impact is particularly severe for SMEs, which have limited financial absorption capacity. The loss of a single shipment may result in:

• Contract cancellations
• Commercial penalties
• Increased insurance premiums
• Cash flow disruption
• Economic paralysis or bankruptcy

When violence accompanies theft, the impact extends to driver safety and prolonged route disruptions.

The problem demands more than reactive enforcement. It requires public-private coordination, technological investment and regulatory reforms that strengthen traceability and effective prosecution of criminal networks.

2025: When Risk Becomes Measurable

The "Mexico: 2025 Annual Cargo Theft Report," by Overhaul, provides a key element: structured intelligence for decision-making.

The report confirms that 82% of cargo theft was concentrated in the Central (51%) and Bajío (31%) regions, with significant growth in the Bajío compared to 2024. This redistribution indicates that the phenomenon does not disappear — it relocates.

Within the Bajío region:

• 94% of incidents were concentrated in Guanajuato (36%), Jalisco (22%), Michoacan (19%) and Queretaro (16%).
• 38% of events occurred on four main highways:
• Queretaro–Leon (MEX-45D)
• Queretaro–San Luis Potosí (MEX-57D)
• Guadalajara–Lagos de Moreno (MEX-80D)
• Atlacomulco–Zapotlanejo (MEX-15D)

The primary modus operandi was in-transit interception (64.1%), followed by theft of parked units (33.1%), a modality that has been increasing since the second half of 2024.

From a temporal perspective:

• 83% of thefts occur Monday through Friday
• Highest concentration between Tuesday and Friday
• Critical nighttime window (18:00–24:00)
• Increase in early-morning incidents (00:00–06:00)

Additionally, 82% of thefts involved some form of violence, according to data cited from Mexico’s National Public Security System (SNSP).

The most stolen product categories in 2025 were:

• Food and beverages (31%)
• Construction and industrial materials (8%)
• Auto parts (8%)
• Miscellaneous goods (8%)
• Fuel (7%)

Crime follows market logic: high-rotation, easily monetized goods are primary targets.

The operational conclusion is clear: risk is not random. It is identifiable, repetitive and analyzable — and therefore mitigable if actionable intelligence is integrated into logistics planning.

The Legal Risk: The Gap Between Value and Liability

Within this equation, SMEs represent the most vulnerable link. Mexico has approximately 5.5 to 6 million SMEs, accounting for more than 99% of businesses, generating nearly 72% of formal employment and contributing around 52% of GDP. For them, a theft or accident can mean supply chain interruption, penalties, client loss or bankruptcy.

The situation is aggravated by a detail rarely understood outside the sector: the liability limitation established in Article 66 of the Federal Roads, Bridges and Motor Transport Law.

If the shipper does not declare the value of the goods, liability may be limited to the equivalent of 15 days of minimum wage per ton.

In practical terms, goods travel at the owner’s risk if there is no proper financial risk transfer mechanism in place. This gap explains why insurance culture remains a decisive factor for business continuity.

Road Accidents: The Second Vector of Loss Exposure

Logistics risk in Mexico is not solely criminal — it is also operational. According to Samsara’s Global Fleet Safety Report, Mexico presents:

• 60% more fleet collisions than the global average
• 238% more mobile phone distraction events

Meanwhile, the "2024 Statistical Yearbook," from the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT), reports:

• 13,771 collisions on federal highways
• 1,812 fatalities at the scene
• 6,800 injured
• More than MX$2.467 billion in damages

More than 80% of crashes are linked to human factors such as distraction, fatigue, and risky maneuvers.

Theft and accidents do not compete with each other; they accumulate within the overall risk equation.

Structural Pressure: Driver Shortage

This risk landscape is further compounded by a structural constraint: the shortage of operators. Projections toward 2028 from the International Road Transport Union (IRU) indicate more than 106,000 driver vacancies in Mexico, with a high proportion of companies reporting “serious or very serious” difficulties in filling positions.

Fewer drivers, growing logistics demand and higher operational stress create fertile ground for both error and crime.

The Trident: The Only Viable Architecture

Given this reality, solutions cannot remain fragmented. What is required is a tripartite shared-responsibility model:

1. Public Sector

Law enforcement, criminal intelligence and territorial control.

2. Private Sector

Protocols, traceability, technology, preventive culture and professionalization.

3. Insurance Ecosystem

Risk modeling, financial transfer mechanisms and operational stabilization after critical events.

These three elements form an inseparable trident. Without coordination, vulnerability persists. With integration, continuity becomes achievable.

Final Reflection

Mexico moves approximately 1% of global trade and nearly 9.5 million TEUs annually. Yet, a significant proportion of shipments still travels without adequate protection. The real challenge of foreign trade is no longer moving goods faster, but moving them securely, reliably and sustainably.

Disruptions are no longer extraordinary events — they are part of the operating environment.

In modern logistics, the question is no longer whether we should invest in security. The strategic question is: How prepared are we to ensure that operations never stop?

About Esaú M. Mendoza Hernández: Business Development Director at Keeper Cargo Insurance. Specialist in cargo insurance and supply chain risk management. Corporate law jurist with international certifications in cargo underwriting and claims. International speaker and co-author of various publications on insurance, logistics and freight transport.