AI Tools Gain Ground as Cargo Theft Risk Persists in Mexico

Mexico’s official cargo theft investigations fell 22.4% YoY in Jan-Feb 2026, but the risk remains high, with nearly eight in 10 cases involving violence. Public, private, and insurance-sector data show different theft patterns across key freight states, highlighting the need for stronger security coordination, better data integration, and AI-powered fleet monitoring.

Mexico’s logistics system remains deeply dependent on trucking, but the sector continues to operate under a persistent security threat. According to the National Chamber of Freight Trucking (CANACAR), trucking moves 58.3% of national cargo and contributes 3.7% of Mexico’s GDP. This makes cargo theft not only a security issue for carriers, but also a structural challenge for supply chains, insurers, shippers, drivers, and final consumers.

Official data from the National Public Security System (SESNSP) shows a decline in “carrier theft” during the first two months of 2026. Mexico registered 833 investigation files for cargo theft between January and February 2026, compared with 1,073 cases during the same period of 2025, representing a 22.4% year-on-year decrease. By month, the trend also improved: January 2026 registered 463 cases, down from 554 in January 2025, while February fell from 519 to 370 cases.

However, the decline does not mean the risk has disappeared. Of the 833 cases reported in the first two months of 2026, 660 involved violence, meaning almost eight out of 10 incidents were classified as violent. The data suggests that although fewer cases are reaching formal investigation files, the attacks that do occur continue to represent a serious threat to drivers and freight operators.

The State of Mexico and Puebla continue to dominate official cargo theft figures. The State of Mexico registered 427 cases in January-February 2026, down from 558 in the same period of 2025, while Puebla followed with 206 cases, compared with 269 a year earlier. Together, both states represented about 76% of the national total in the first two months of 2026. San Luis Potosi followed with 60 cases, Michoacan with 41, and Oaxaca with 17. Michoacan showed one of the strongest decreases, falling from 77 to 41 cases, while Oaxaca moved in the opposite direction, rising from 11 to 17 cases.

Still, industry experts warn that official figures capture only part of the problem. Luis Villatoro, Director of Intelligence and Security LATAM, Overhaul and President of the National Association of Vehicle Tracking and Protection Companies (ANERPV), said to MBN the mismatch between public and private figures is largely explained by methodology.

“They are two different samples, which is why they do not match. As you know, the SNSP only records investigation files opened at the Public Prosecutor’s Offices under local jurisdiction. ANERPV, on the other hand, records incidents from our members that generated a pre-report, but not all of them end up becoming investigation files. Since we can no longer follow up with authorities, we do not know how many of them become formal investigation files,” said Villatoro.

Villatoro said that, to compare similar datasets, the better exercise would be to contrast SNSP figures with investigation files generated by the Attorney General’s Office. His point highlights one of the main challenges in measuring cargo theft in Mexico: not all events follow the same reporting path, and not every operational incident becomes a formal criminal investigation.

Private-sector intelligence from Logytek adds another layer to the picture. Its January-February 2026 report also identifies the State of Mexico and Puebla as the main cargo theft hotspots, but with a different distribution. According to Logytek, the State of Mexico represented 26% of cargo theft incidents, while Puebla accounted for 21%. The report also highlighted Guanajuato, Michoacan, and Jalisco as operational hotspots, showing that private data may capture risks that do not appear with the same weight in official investigation files.

Private reports tend to focus more on operational exposure, including routes, cargo types, time windows, and modus operandi. Logytek reports that 51% of incidents occurred while units were in transit, while 27% involved detention in transit. It also identified food and beverages as the most stolen cargo category, representing 34% of reported incidents, followed by other merchandise, construction materials, textiles, electronics, auto parts, technology, pharmaceuticals, and wine and liquor.

That type of information is largely absent from public crime statistics. SESNSP data does not explain whether the theft happened on a specific highway, outside a customer facility, during a route deviation, or during an operational stop. 

Insurance-sector data also shows mixed signals. According to the Mexican Association of Insurance Institutions (AMIS), 8,916 insured heavy vehicles were stolen between March 2025 and February 2026, down from 9,724 units in the previous 12-month period. This represents an annual decrease of 8.3%, suggesting that insured heavy-vehicle theft also declined on a rolling annual basis.

However, the monthly comparison points to renewed pressure. In February 2026, 854 insured vehicles were stolen, compared with 745 in February 2025, an increase of 14.6% year-on-year. Recovery also weakened, with 368 units recovered in February 2026, down from 473 in February 2025. AMIS notes that recovery figures do not include units considered total losses and that monthly figures may vary due to cancellations or claims registered after the cut-off date.

The state-level ranking for insured heavy-vehicle theft was led by the State of Mexico, Puebla, Jalisco, Veracruz, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and Michoacan. SESNSP places San Luis Potosi and Oaxaca among the main states for carrier theft investigation files in January-February 2026, while Logytek gives greater weight to Guanajuato and Jalisco. AMIS, meanwhile, places Jalisco, Veracruz, and Guanajuato among the top heavy-vehicle theft states.

Lauro Rincón, National President, Mexican Federation of Transportation and Freight Transport (FEMATRAC), explains that the trend has improved compared with last year, but the sector is far from solving the problem. “Compared with last year’s numbers or data, this year we do have lower figures. Unfortunately, they are not at zero, and I think that will be complicated,” says Rincón to MBN.

Rincón adds that FEMATRAC raised the issue with federal authorities during a meeting in Mexico City on April 17, where one of the main requests was to reinforce security in the states with the highest incidence of cargo theft. “One of the issues was precisely insecurity, and one of the commitments they made, because that is what I asked for, was that it was necessary to reinforce security, especially in the states with the highest incidence or red flags in cargo theft,” he says.

Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, the State of Mexico, Queretaro, Michoacan, Jalisco, Guanajuato, and San Luis Potosi are some of the most complicated states for freight operators, says Rincón. However, he also points to a deeper structural problem: alleged collusion between some police forces and criminal groups. “Unfortunately, there is also complicity between some police forces and organized crime. That is clear to us. For crime to flourish, operate freely, and grow, it is because it has the support and protection of authorities,” he says.

Despite this, Rincón says coordination with authorities has helped reduce attacks in some areas. He points to Tamaulipas as an example, where FEMATRAC has held monthly meetings with federal, state, and municipal authorities to address extortion and attacks against carriers. “Those meetings are working for us. Attacks against transportation have gone down. This is an issue we also have to address in most states because attacks against transportation remain very current,” he adds.

Against this backdrop, technology companies are positioning AI, real-time monitoring, and fleet visibility as critical tools to improve response times. Samsara recently introduced its new AI-powered Incident Center in Mexico, a platform designed to centralize security events, support faster incident response, and provide real-time visibility for fleet operators. The company said the solution uses AI to help fleets identify risks more quickly, automate processes, and coordinate action during events such as theft, GPS jamming, panic-button activations, and route deviations.

Samsara’s proposal aims to address one of the central weaknesses in Mexico’s cargo security ecosystem: the gap between what happens on the road and what is formally captured in public data. While public figures measure investigation files, technology platforms can track operational events as they occur, even when those events do not immediately become criminal complaints. Samsara’s Incident Center is designed to create a unified view of risk events and support post-incident analysis, which may help operators understand repeated patterns, vulnerable routes, and response gaps.

Samsara’s broader platform already promotes AI-enabled risk detection, real-time GPS visibility, driver alerts, and fleet safety tools for logistics operations. Other technology providers have also warned that cargo theft in North America is entering a more digital phase, with risks such as GPS spoofing, AI-enabled fraud, and more complex criminal tactics becoming part of the security landscape.