Cargo Theft in Mexico Fell 21.5% in 2025, but Risks Persist

Cargo theft continues to challenge Mexican logistics, and 2025 was no exception. While some sources argue that crime rates have decreased, industry experts argue that cargo theft continues to hit the sector, and it led to several strikes throughout 2025.

According to the Executive Ministry of the National Public Security System (SESNSP), cargo theft fell 21.49% in 2025 compared with 2024. October was the worst month, with 608 incidents. The states most exposed to the crime were the State of Mexico, Puebla, San Luis Potosi, Michoacan, and Nuevo Leon. SESNSP data indicates all states posted decreases year over year, with two notable exceptions. San Luis Potosi recorded a 42.85% increase in December, while Nuevo Leon stayed flat, reporting 141 cases in 2025, the same total as 2024.

Hotspots Concentrate Around Industrial Hubs

Meanwhile, Assistcargo in its November to December 2025 bimonthly report places the State of Mexico at the top of its incidence map for late 2025, followed by Puebla, Guanajuato, Jalisco, and Michoacan. The company links the State of Mexico’s position to the density of industrial hubs, naming Cuautitlan Izcalli, Ecatepec de Morelos, Tecamac, Tepotzotlan, Toluca, Naucalpan de Juarez, and Coacalco de Berriozabal among the most affected municipalities. In Puebla, Assistcargo highlights San Martin Texmelucan, Puebla, Esperanza, Tepeaca, and Tecamachalco as key hotspots during the last two months of the year. 

The report also flags shifts in hotspots. Assistcargo notes that during the second half of 2025, Michoacan showed a “potential increase” in theft in transit, climbing into the country’s top five and displacing states such as San Luis Potosi, Veracruz, and Hidalgo. The most affected municipalities cited are Zinapecuaro, Copandaro, Maravatio, Panindicuaro, and La Piedad. Jalisco also moved up the ranking, rising from fifth to fourth place in Assistcargo’s bimonthly comparison, with Guadalajara, San Pedro Tlaquepaque, Tlajomulco de Zúñiga, Zapopan, Tonala, and Arandas identified as key municipalities.

Assistcargo’s late-2025 data suggests thieves continue to prioritize goods that are easy to resell quickly. For November and December, the most stolen categories were food and beverages (27%) and textiles (10%), followed by construction materials (9%), electronics (8%), auto parts (7%), and technology (7%), pharma (6%), wines and liquors (6%), and other (20%). Assistcargo additionally notes an uptick in theft of textile products, including raw materials and finished goods like apparel and footwear, alongside electronics and technology, emphasizing their attractiveness due to high commercial value and rapid placement in informal markets.

The report also breaks down the types of equipment most often targeted, which is useful for fleet-level security planning. In the last bimonthly period of 2025, semi-truck represented 41% of stolen units, followed by vehicles under 3.5 tons (21%), torton trucks (18%), rabon units (14%), and full (6%).

In its “modus operandi” snapshot for November to December, the company reports that 49% of thefts occurred while the cargo was in transit, while 27% involved a stop or detention in transit. The data also identifies recurring temporal concentration. Tuesday (22%) and Thursday (19%) were the highest-risk days in the week during the period, and the most exposed time windows were nighttime (6:00 p.m. to 12:00 a.m.) at 28% and early morning (12:00 a.m. to 06:00 a.m.) at 26%.

According to Assistcargo, the corridors with elevated exposure include:

• Mexico–Puebla Toll Highway 150D: Section between San Marcos Huixtoco and San Martin Texmelucan

• Arco Norte Toll Highway: Section between Jilotepec and San Martin Texmelucan

• Mexico–Puebla Toll Highway 150D: Section between San Marcos Huixtoco and San Martin Texmelucan

• Highway 57 San Luis Potosi–Matehuala: Section between La Pila and the Matehuala interchange

• Mexico–Queretaro toll highway: Section between Cuautitlan Izcalli and Pedro Escobedo

• Puebla–Veracruz Toll Highway 150D: Section between Maltrata and La Tinaja

• Queretaro–Irapuato Highway: Section between Apaseo El Grande and Cerro Gordo

• Guadalajara–Atlacomulco Toll Highway 15D: Section between Panindicuaro and Atlacomulco

• Highway 57 Matehuala–Monterrey: Section between Matehuala and the San Roberto interchange

• Salamanca–Leon Toll Highway 43D: Section between Cerro Gordo and Leon

• Acatlán de Juarez–Guadalajara Macrolibramiento (bypass): Section between Acatlan and Zapotlanejo

• Cordoba–Minatitlan toll highway 145D: Section between La Tinaja and Acayucan

• Mexiquense Outer Circuit (Circuito Exterior Mexiquense): Section between Zumpango and Chalco

• Guadalajara–Lagos de Moreno Toll Highway 80D: Section between Tepatitlan and San Juan de los Lagos

• Queretaro–San Luis Potosi Toll Highway: Section between San José Iturbide and Santa Maria del Rio

• Lazaro Cardenas–Uruapan toll highway 37D: Section between Las Cañas and Nueva Italia

Mexico’s 4Q25 Risk in a Global Context

In a document shared with MBN, BSI Consulting notes that cargo theft patterns in 4Q25 continued to reflect a high-risk operating environment for Mexico within broader global supply chain security trends. The document indicates that theft events remain strongly tied to road freight exposure and that incidents frequently occur while shipments are moving or during brief unplanned stops, reinforcing the need for route discipline and stop-control protocols.

In its analysis, the consulting group ranks Mexico among the top global cargo theft hotspots, accounting for 7% of recorded incidents worldwide in the quarter. Within North America, Mexico represented 56% of reported cargo theft incidents, ahead of the United States at 36% and Canada at 7%, underscoring Mexico’s outsized share of regional risk.

Across North America, trucks were involved in 79% of incidents, and thefts most often occurred in transit, which represented 60% of cases, followed by parking lots at 10%, reports BSI Consulting.

BSI Consulting's Preview Quarterly Supply Chain Intelligence Report states that hijacking is the leading theft type in North America at 32%, followed by theft of vehicle at 23%, aligning with Mexico’s long-standing challenge of violent, in-motion events rather than purely opportunistic pilferage. Globally, the company reports that food and beverage products are the top target at 21%, followed by electronics at 11% and agriculture at 10%, highlighting the consistent appeal of fast-resale commodities.

Insured Trucks and Trailers Face Violent Theft

AMIS data shows that cargo-capable units remain central to Mexico’s vehicle-theft problem, particularly when theft involves violence. In its latest report on insured vehicle theft, AMIS’ ranking of sub-brands with the highest share of theft with violence includes multiple freight configurations. Among them, dry-box semi-trailers posted a 69.2% violence rate in 2024–2025, with 660 thefts and 457 classified as violent.

For tractor-trailers, the report also highlights three of the most common heavy-truck brands operating on Mexico’s corridors:

• Kenworth: 2,049 thefts, 1,381 with violence, 67.4% violence rate (2024–2025)  

• Freightliner: 807 thefts, 543 with violence, 67.3% violence rate  

• International: 731 thefts, 491 with violence, 67.2% violence rate

Beyond tractors and trailers, AMIS reports 9,128 thefts of insured heavy equipment in the same annualized window, with a national recovery rate shown at 68%. The State of Mexico topped the list with 1,848, followed by Puebla (1,263), Veracruz (723), Guanajuato (694), and Jalisco (638).