Mexico Freight Market to Hit US$170 Billion by 2031: Mordor

According to a Mordor Intelligence report, Mexico’s freight and logistics market is projected to reach US$170.39 billion by 2031, supported by nearshoring, e-commerce, cross-border trade, and demand for integrated logistics services.

Mexico’s freight and logistics market is expected to grow from US$131.06 billion in 2026 to US$170.39 billion by 2031, supported by nearshoring, e-commerce growth, infrastructure development, and rising demand for integrated logistics services, according to Mordor Intelligence.

The market, valued at US$124.36 billion in 2025, is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 5.39% between 2026 and 2031. The report identifies cross-border manufacturing relocation, higher digital commerce volumes, and sustained trade activity with the United States as key factors shaping logistics demand in Mexico.

Nearshoring continues to influence freight flows, particularly across northern industrial corridors and US-Mexico border states. As manufacturers relocate or expand operations closer to the North American market, logistics providers are seeing greater demand for cross-border transport, customs brokerage, bonded warehousing, and real-time shipment visibility. Mordor Intelligence says this trend is contributing to structural demand for third-party logistics providers capable of managing end-to-end regional supply chains.

Manufacturing remains the main end-user segment for logistics services in Mexico, accounting for 40.72% of the market in 2025. Activity in automotive, electronics, and medical devices continues to support freight demand, particularly for truckload, rail, warehousing, and contract logistics services. Wholesale and retail trade, while smaller in absolute terms, is forecast to be the fastest-growing end-user segment, with a 5.68% CAGR between 2026 and 2031.

By logistics function, freight transport accounted for 60.45% of the market in 2025, reflecting Mexico’s reliance on cargo movement linked to manufacturing, exports, and domestic distribution. Road freight remained the dominant transport mode, with a 60.07% share in 2025, supported by its flexibility, door-to-door reach, and role in cross-border corridors.

However, air freight is expected to grow at the fastest pace among transport modes, with a projected CAGR of 5.98% from 2026 to 2031. The report links this growth to demand from sectors such as semiconductors, aerospace, and life sciences, where transit time and supply chain reliability are key priorities.

The courier, express, and parcel segment is also expected to accelerate, growing at a 6.08% CAGR through 2031. Mordor Intelligence attributes this to continued e-commerce expansion, higher parcel density in major cities, and growing demand for faster delivery services. Domestic parcels accounted for 55.02% of CEP revenue in 2025, while international CEP is projected to grow faster, at a 6.21% CAGR between 2026 and 2031.

Warehousing is another area of growth, particularly as companies adjust distribution networks to support omnichannel retail and nearshoring-related production. Non-temperature-controlled storage represented 91.12% of warehousing and storage capacity in 2025, but temperature-controlled space is expected to expand at a 5.12% CAGR, driven by pharmaceuticals, perishables, frozen food, and high-value agricultural products.

Infrastructure projects are also expected to influence the sector’s long-term development. Mordor Intelligence identifies the Mayan Train freight component and the Inter-Oceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec as projects that could open new logistics corridors in southern Mexico and improve multimodal connectivity. These projects are expected to support new cargo routes, industrial parks, port connectivity, and regional distribution capacity over the long term.

Despite the growth outlook, the report also identifies several constraints for Mexico’s logistics sector. Cargo theft and highway security risks remain a challenge for carriers and shippers, particularly on key road corridors. According to Mordor Intelligence, security costs can affect margins by increasing spending on escorts, satellite tracking, insurance, and risk management.

Regulatory compliance is another pressure point. The report highlights Complemento Carta Porte 3.0 requirements as a factor adding documentation and technology costs for logistics operators, especially smaller fleets. Compliance demands require stronger integration between telematics, warehouse management systems, transport management systems, and invoicing platforms.

Energy infrastructure constraints in industrial zones are also cited as a factor that may affect logistics and warehousing expansion, especially in areas with growing manufacturing investment. At the same time, the market remains highly fragmented, with competition shifting toward providers that can combine transportation, customs, warehousing, compliance, and digital visibility in one platform.

Mordor Intelligence says the market’s low concentration creates opportunities for integrated logistics providers, freight forwarders, CEP operators, warehousing companies, and specialized cold-chain players. As Mexico’s trade and manufacturing profile continues to evolve, logistics companies are expected to compete increasingly on technology, compliance capacity, multimodal connectivity, and cross-border service integration.