Mexico's Logistics Market Set to Grow 7.4% Yearly Through 2030

Foreign Direct Investment driven by industrial manufacturing and supply chain nearshoring is providing a powerful tailwind for Mexico’s logistics and transportation sector, positioning the country as the fastest-growing major logistics market in Latin America despite a broader national deceleration in new foreign capital inflows.

According to a market analysis by research firm Ken Research, Mexico’s logistics market reached an estimated valuation of US$101.4 billion in 2025. This total accounts for 26% of the entire Latin American logistics market, which was valued at US$390 billion.

Driven by ongoing manufacturing expansions and the entry of new multinational corporations, Ken Research projects that Mexico’s logistics sector will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% through 2030. While Brazil remains Latin America’s largest logistics market by volume, commanding a 35% regional share worth US$136.5 billion, Mexico pairs the second-largest market footprint with the highest growth rate among the region's leading economies.

Manufacturing Links Fuel Logistics Infrastructure

The growth in logistics services is directly tethered to North American manufacturing integration and cross-border trade arrangements under the USMCA.

"Mexico's advantage is closely linked to North American manufacturing, and Mexico's nearshoring proposition is based on a series of clear advantages: automotive supply chains linked to the USMCA, proximity to the US, and the continuous relocation of suppliers," Ken Research stated in its report.

The research firm highlighted that automotive and electric vehicle (EV) component manufacturing remains heavily concentrated in Mexico and Brazil. However, Mexico maintains a structural advantage due to its direct geographic proximity to the US and tariff-free integration under the USMCA framework.

Electronics manufacturing follows a similar trajectory. Assembly operations, Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS), and semiconductor support networks are consolidating across Mexico, Brazil, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. Mexico stands out within this group due to its established border manufacturing ecosystem, robust industrial parks, and direct access to US consumer demand.

This ongoing relocation of manufacturing operations is forcing a parallel expansion of critical supply chain and logistics infrastructure. Nearshoring activity across Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Panama is driving heightened demand for industrial warehouses, industrial parks, overland freight transportation, customs brokerage services, port facilities, and third-party logistics (3PL) providers.

"At the same time, companies are adopting local storage systems, bonded warehouses, and regional stock positioning, while vendor diversification increases the need for supplier parks, cross-border overland transport, and regional distribution networks," Ken Research noted.

Spurred by these structural changes, the total Latin American logistics market is projected to reach US$527 billion by 2030.

Capital Outlays Shift to Key Industrial States

The surging demand for industrial and logistics infrastructure comes at a pivotal juncture for Mexico’s broader foreign investment landscape.

Data covering the first half of 2026 shows that new Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) entering Mexico slowed to US$2.726 billion, marking a 13.4% decline compared to the same period in 2025. While reinvested earnings constituted the majority of overall foreign capital flows nationwide, a select group of industrial states successfully attracted new capital investments targeting manufacturing, steel, automotive parts, and transportation infrastructure.

Baja California Sur led the nation in new foreign capital capture, securing US$524 million in the first half of 2026, a 28.0% year-over-year increase, primarily directed toward pension funds, guest houses, and hotel services.

However, manufacturing and heavy logistics hubs dominated the remaining top rankings:

• Nuevo León ranked second nationwide, attracting US$473 million in new foreign direct investment, representing a 190.1% annual surge. Inflows were driven by wholesale truck commercialization, vehicle manufacturing, and the primary iron and steel industry.
• Querétaro took third place, capturing US$410 million in new FDI—a 158.6% year-over-year increase. Capital allocation was concentrated in electric power, food product processing, automotive parts production, and electronic component manufacturing.

A secondary tier of states captured between US$100 million and US$300 million in new investment, including Jalisco, Quintana Roo, Nayarit, Chihuahua, Baja California, Puebla, and Guanajuato. Other states registered between US$20 million and US$100 million, while the lowest-performing regions recorded less than US$7 million.

Conversely, Tlaxcala recorded zero new FDI during the six-month period, while the State of Mexico, Zacatecas, Sonora, Aguascalientes, and Mexico City experienced net capital outflows.

Foreign Direct Investment remains a key pillar of Mexico's economic model, serving to modernise strategic sectors such as automotive, high-tech manufacturing, and logistics services while driving job creation and cross-border commercial integration.