The Operational Costs Logistics Is Paying Amid the Iran Conflict

When analyzing the conflict in the Middle East, it is easy to assume its impact is regional. In logistics, that reading falls short. In 2026, tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are generating a global logistical impact that is already translating into higher operating costs, longer routes, and more uncertain supply chains.

The starting point is structural. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy “chokepoint.” According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products passed through it in 2025; The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that roughly one-quarter of globally seaborne oil trade flows through Hormuz.

When a node of this magnitude becomes unstable, the impact does not remain regional. It immediately reshapes the cost structure of moving goods worldwide.

Four Ways the Conflict Is Driving Up Logistics Costs

The logistical impact of the conflict is not abstract. It materializes in at least four concrete operational dimensions:

1. Higher energy costs: Transportation is directly tied to energy prices. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the conflict has pushed Brent crude above US$100 per barrel, also increasing the cost of natural gas and other energy inputs.
This has a cross-cutting effect: maritime, land, and air transport all operate with higher costs, which inevitably translate into increased logistics rates.

2. Rising insurance premiums: Less visible, but equally critical, maritime insurance is a key component of logistics costs. The World Bank has documented that, in conflict scenarios affecting critical routes, marine insurance costs can reach “unprecedented” levels, significantly raising the cost of international trade.

3. Longer, less efficient routes: Uncertainty forces vessels to reroute and avoid high-risk areas. The IMF notes that shipping diversions are increasing transport costs and extending transit times. Operationally, this means more days in transit, higher fuel consumption, and lower delivery predictability.

4. More volatile transit times: UNCTAD reported that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped from approximately 129 daily transits in February to just four in March 2026 — a contraction of nearly 97%, reflecting the scale of the operational disruption.
This creates a domino effect across supply chains. The impact extends beyond transportation, affecting the entire value chain: logistics costs rise not only due to transport itself, but also due to the increased cost of the goods being moved.

Why does this matter for Mexican companies? Because the country is deeply integrated into global supply chains.

The impact is indirect but clear: higher costs for imported inputs, increased international freight rates, greater variability in supplier delivery times, and added pressure on existing logistics contracts.

The conflict in Iran is not just a geopolitical event. It is a reminder that global logistics is exposed to risks that can escalate rapidly and translate into tangible operating costs.

In this context, companies are being forced to rethink how they manage logistical risk. This goes beyond reacting to disruptions; it involves building more resilient supply chains through supplier diversification, greater visibility across operations, and more flexible contracting structures. Organizations that rely on single routes or tightly optimized cost models are particularly exposed, while those that invest in redundancy and real-time decision-making capabilities are better positioned to navigate volatility without compromising continuity.

In 2026, competitive advantage does not lie in avoiding the impact — because that is not possible — but in absorbing it better than others. When the world becomes more uncertain, logistics does not stop; it simply becomes more expensive, more complex, and more strategic.

Ilan Epelbaum is the CEO of Mail Boxes Etc. Mexico (MBE), where he leads relationships and negotiations with business partners and oversees the company’s positioning in the country. He is also responsible for managing relationships with MBE franchisees in Mexico and for driving the company’s nationwide expansion.