Gold Hits Record as HSBC Predicts Up to US$3,600/oz in 2025

HSBC has revised its gold price forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026, citing heightened geopolitical risks, mounting global debt, and persistent economic uncertainty that continue to drive investor demand for safe-haven assets.

HSBC now expects the precious metal to average US$3,215/oz in 2025, up from its previous estimate of US$3,015. For 2026, the forecast has also been raised to US$3,125/oz, compared to the earlier projection of US$2,915.

Gold prices hit an all-time high of US$3,500.5/oz in April, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets. In a market note, HSBC predicted a broad and volatile trading range between US$3,100/oz and US$3,600/oz for the rest of 2025, with year-end targets of US$3,175/oz for 2025 and US$3,025/oz for 2026.

Adding to the financial uncertainty, US Republican Senators continued debating a significant tax and spending bill, originally backed by former President Donald Trump. The legislation is projected to increase US debt by US$3.3 trillion, causing internal divisions within the Republican party. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of potential sharp tariff increases to be announced by July 9, further fueling market anxiety.

Even if gold prices pull back, HSBC argues that the current US$3,000+ levels validate gold’s role as a portfolio hedge and store of value. The bank noted that central banks may slow down gold purchases if prices rally above US$3,300 but could step up buying should prices retreat closer to US$3,000. Physically, if prices climb much above US$3,500, HSBC anticipates declining demand for jewelry, coins, and small bars, particularly in high-consumption markets like India and China.