Grupo México Beats 4Q25 Expectations as Metals Prices Surge

This week, Grupo México posted net earnings of about US$1.43 billion, exceeding the US$1.32 billion forecast compiled by LSEG analysts. Results were driven by higher production levels, with copper output rising 2% and gold production increasing 14%. Market conditions also played a major role, as copper prices climbed 22%, silver surged 74%, and gold advanced 56%, according to the company. Group revenue expanded 34% year over year to US$5.15 billion, beating analyst expectations of US$4.87 billion.

Looking ahead, Grupo México is preparing new investments over the next decade, with projects planned across the United States, Peru, and Spain. Its US subsidiary, Asarco, is expected to increase mining output under new copper-related policies introduced by President Donald Trump. The company is also moving forward with studies to restart and expand the Hayden smelter and the Amarillo refinery in the United States.

In Mexico, Grupo México said it is in talks with the current administration to revive more than US$10 billion in stalled investments after permits were frozen under the previous government.

Meanwhile, the infrastructure division weighed on overall performance, posting a quarterly net loss. The segment was affected by PEMEX’s suspension of four offshore platforms and by unfavorable currency movements.

Geopolitics Push Minerals Record Highs

Geopolitical tensions are increasingly driving precious metals markets. Gold surged past US$5,100/oz on Jan. 26, hitting historic highs as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Canada. This weekend, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it proceeds with a trade deal with China, creating fresh market jitters. Investors are also watching the possibility of coordinated currency interventions by the United States and Japan.

Attention is  also focused on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Trump has applied pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, a move that would typically support non-yielding assets like gold. 

Previously, metal prices had climbed triggered by Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on Europe over the Greenland dispute. Earlier in the month, precious metals experienced notable gains following the United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. On Jan. 5, gold prices climbed more than 2%, reaching weekly highs as investors shifted toward traditional safe-haven assets amid heightened risk sentiment.

The rally continued on Jan. 12, when gold and silver again reached record levels after the Trump administration announced a criminal investigation into Powell, raising concerns over US monetary policy and adding a political risk premium to financial markets. 

Outlook for 2026

Silver and gold enter 2026 with strong momentum, led by an exceptional rally in silver. Citigroup forecasts spot silver could reach US$150/oz within the next three months, after prices surged nearly 50% in January alone. The metal set a new record at US$117.71/oz on Jan. 26, including a 14% single-session jump, the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. Citi adds that if the gold-to-silver ratio returns to its 2011 low of 32:1, silver prices could extend toward US$170/oz.

Gold, meanwhile, continues to anchor portfolios as the market’s primary safe-haven asset. Prices are holding above US$5,100/oz, with year-end expectations near US$5,200/oz. Central bank purchases, geopolitical risk, and ETF inflows underpin gold’s resilience, although HSBC anticipates volatility, projecting a trading range of US$3,950–US$5,050/oz through 2026.