Mining 2026: Redefining the Mexican Landscape

Mexico’s strategic position in global critical minerals positions it as a key supplier for North America, producing 12 of the 60 minerals deemed essential by the United States and leading in silver, fluorite, and other metals. Implementing a comprehensive critical minerals policy could attract US$43 billion in investment by 2030, create 500,000 jobs, expand production for US supply chains, and enhance Mexico’s competitiveness through regulatory clarity, sustainable practices, and targeted exploration and refining initiatives.

At Mexico Mining Forum PDAC 2026, CAMIMEX Director General Karen Flores emphasized that the future global order will be shaped by those controlling critical minerals. “In today’s world, power is no longer defined solely by advanced industries or technological know-how. It is increasingly anchored in access to the raw materials that make modern life possible.”

She explained that minerals such as cobalt, nickel, copper, lithium, and rare earth elements form the backbone of digital infrastructure, renewable energy systems, artificial intelligence, and defense technologies. “Mining, once viewed as an invisible upstream activity, has moved to the center of strategic thinking. It is no longer just an economic sector. It is a matter of national security.”

Flores highlighted a stark reality: global mineral supply is highly concentrated. The Democratic Republic of Congo dominates cobalt production with 76% of global production. China controls 91% of rare earth supply. Indonesia leads nickel production with 60%. Australia and Chile account for 75% of lithium production. Yet production is only part of the story. Real power lies in refining and processing. China refines around 90% of rare earths, 99% of nickel, 60–70% of lithium and cobalt, produces 85% of cathodes, 70% of anodes, and controls 85% of lithium battery cell production. 

In this context, Mexico ranks among the world’s Top 15 producers in 19 minerals, 12 of which are considered critical to the United States. This places Mexico strategically within North America’s supply chains. Mexico leads global silver production with 25% of the market. It ranks second in fluorite with 12.6%, third in wollastonite with 9%, and holds strong positions in molybdenum, cadmium, zinc, lead, gold, and copper. These figures reflect not just geological potential but an established industrial base.

Flores emphasized that recently the United States published a list of 60 critical minerals essential to national security and strategic industries. Mexico produces 12 of them. Given the high import reliance in the United States, particularly where imports account for 20% or more of domestic demand, the interdependence between the two countries makes cooperation both logical and strategic.

In 2023, the United States remained Mexico’s main mineral trade partner, for both exports and imports. This tight integration underscores the opportunity for a North American critical minerals agreement that strengthens regional competitiveness while reducing dependence on external actors.

Mining’s Contribution to the Domestic Economy

Mining fuels 192 productive sectors across Mexico. Seventy-five percent of its total inputs come from domestic suppliers, demonstrating strong local linkages. The sector contributes MX$45 billion (US$2.5 billion) annually in taxes, including MX$9 billion (US$0.5 billion) in mining duties.

Moreover, 72% of Mexico’s mineral exports already incorporate value-added processing within the country, including beneficiation. This shows that Mexico is not only extracting raw materials but also capturing part of the value chain.

Key Enablers for a Strategic Shift

To capitalize on its potential as a strategic mining powerhouse, Mexico must act decisively. Flores outlined several key enablers:

• Establish investment incentives within responsible and sustainable frameworks.

• Combat unfair competition, particularly from Asia.

• Strengthen security conditions in mining regions.

• Reactivate exploration to ensure long-term productive sustainability.

• Guarantee clear procedures and defined timelines for environmental, social, and operational permits.

• Modernize the legal framework to provide legal certainty.

These measures aim not at deregulation, but at clarity, efficiency, and competitiveness. Proposals include incorporating a dedicated mining chapter into the USMCA, encouraging private investment in exploration through immediate tax deductions, creating a one-stop shop for essential mineral production, ensuring operational security, identifying priority refining and processing projects, amending mining laws, and expediting permitting timelines.

A Vision Toward 2030

Globally, 22 countries have already established official critical minerals lists and monitoring agencies. Their strategies revolve around three priorities: ensuring reliable supply, promoting exploration and innovation, and advancing sustainable mining practices.

If Mexico implements a comprehensive critical minerals policy, the projected benefits are significant. By 2030, responsible mining could attract approximately US$43 billion in investment, including US$18 billion in key projects and US$500 million annually for exploration of existing concessions.

The sector could generate 500,000 new quality jobs, 150,000 direct and 350,000 indirect, with average wages nearly five times the wellbeing poverty line. Contributions to the Federal Treasury could reach MX$212 billion, plus an additional MX$50 billion from key projects. Annual economic spillover could total MX$300 billion across more than 200 municipalities.

Additionally, Mexico could increase domestic supply for 192 productive sectors and boost production of critical minerals for the United States by 50% in copper, 29% in silver, 46.7% in zinc, and 27% in gold.

“The new geopolitics demand that Mexico redefine its mining strategy and strengthen its regulatory framework to position itself as a key player in production, industrialization, and value addition for the country, its communities, and the North American region,” said Flores.