Mining Investment Fell 3.3% in 2025; Rebound Expected in 2026

Mexico's mining investment fell 3.3% in 2025 to US$4.896 billion as new project spending dropped 49.2% amid persistent permit delays, though CAMIMEX forecasts a 30.8% rebound to US$6.4 billion in 2026. The industry has roughly US$11 billion in stalled investment awaiting authorizations, while Mexico improved 13 spots in the Fraser Institute's investment attractiveness ranking. Despite declining mining GDP for a third consecutive year, production value hit a historic high driven by precious metals, with CAMIMEX linking future growth to Plan México and North America's critical minerals supply chain.

Mining investment in Mexico dropped 3.3% in 2025, falling from US$5.063 billion in 2024 to US$4.896 billion, driven mainly by a sharp pullback in new project development and continued delays in permit approvals, according to the CAMIMEX 2026 Annual Report. 

Spending on new mine developments fell 49.2% year-over-year, while investment in project expansions dropped 47.8%, as companies redirected resources toward operational maintenance, underground works and expanding existing operations rather than launching large-scale projects.

Community development spending declined 22.4% and clean energy investment fell 17.7%, according to the report. Those declines contrasted with gains elsewhere in company budgets: exploration spending rose 23.4%, training and productivity investment jumped 62.8%, environmental spending increased 55.6%, and machinery and equipment purchases climbed 38.5%. The pattern suggests miners spent 2025 consolidating and preparing existing assets rather than committing capital to greenfield development.

Permitting Remains the Industry's Central Bottleneck

CAMIMEX President Pedro Rivero identified regulatory approvals as the primary constraint on new investment, saying the industry has roughly US$11 billion in stalled project spending that cannot move forward because authorizations have not been secured. 

He noted that new concession grants have seen little activity since Mexico's 2023 Mining Law took effect, and that exploration, the starting point for any new mineral discovery, depends directly on concessions being issued. "If we keep on the path of authorizations flowing, then investment can flow, and it also sends positive signals for investors to feel encouraged," Rivero said. CAMIMEX Director General Karen Flores added that the industry is prepared to invest more than US$14 billion if the necessary conditions for project development materialize, though she did not specify a timeframe.

That bottleneck echoes findings Mexico Business News has tracked over the past year. The government inherited 176 stalled mining projects at the start of the current administration, and through an accelerated review process has resolved 110 of them, leaving 66 pending as of late 2025, with officials aiming to normalize the backlog by mid-2026. 

Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard has publicly committed to accelerating permit approvals in 2026, framing secure supply chains as a national priority and citing CAMIMEX as one of the government's closest partners on regulatory issues. In January, industry executives in Chihuahua similarly estimated 160 stalled projects nationally, with roughly 60% already approved, attributing most delays to missing environmental permits.

A Sharp Rebound Expected in 2026

CAMIMEX forecasts total mining investment will reach US$6.402 billion in 2026, a 30.8% increase over 2025, led by maintenance spending (US$1.113 billion), project expansions (US$976 million), equipment purchases (US$835 million) and environmental actions (US$735 million). 

Exploration investment is projected to rise from US$513.56 million to US$630.35 million, while spending on entirely new projects is expected to more than triple, from US$166.8 million to US$485.13 million, the clearest signal that CAMIMEX expects the permitting logjam to ease meaningfully this year.

Mexico's investment climate also improved on an external benchmark: the country climbed 13 spots, from 49th to 36th out of 68 jurisdictions, in the Fraser Institute's Investment Attractiveness Index, a shift Flores said should be well received internationally and help unlock additional capital as authorities continue processing pending permits.

Even as investment fell, the value of Mexico's mining-metallurgical production hit a historic high of MX$379.29 billion in 2025, up 21.2% from 2024, driven largely by precious metals: silver production value rose 34.9% and gold 31.8%, while industrial metals grew 12.1% on copper, zinc and molybdenum performance. 

Despite that revenue growth, mining's contribution to GDP fell 3.2% in 2025, marking a third consecutive year of decline, a divergence that reflects rising metal prices lifting production values even as output volumes and new capacity lag. Mining's fiscal contributions still rose sharply, reaching MX$78.14 billion, up 72.3% from 2024, largely on higher gold and silver prices.

Critical Minerals Add Urgency to the Permitting Push

CAMIMEX tied the investment outlook directly to Plan México, calling it an opportunity to strengthen national industrialization, and pointed to the sector's role supplying 192 production chains tied to manufacturing, electromobility, clean energy and technology infrastructure. 

Mexico produces more than 25 minerals considered priorities for industrial development and 12 minerals classified as critical for North America, positioning it, according to CAMIMEX, to capitalize on Plan México and a potential agreement with the United States on critical minerals. 

A comprehensive critical minerals policy could draw as much as US$43 billion in investment by 2030 and create 500,000 jobs, underscoring what's at stake if Mexico can convert its improved investment ranking and easing permit backlog into sustained project approvals through the rest of the decade.