Sheinbaum's Stance on Mining: Continuity With AMLO's Policies?

MORENA candidate Claudia Sheinbaum has made history by becoming Mexico's first female president. Although experts expect her to maintain President López Obrador's stance on mining, there is uncertainty about the extent of her commitment to his policies.

INE announced that Sheinbaum secured between 58.6% and 60.7% of the votes, making her the most-voted candidate in Mexico's recent history.  INE also announced that MORENA and its allies will achieve a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, which will allow them to easily pass reforms in Congress. 

During her campaign, Sheinbaum stressed her commitment to maintaining consistency in policies and safeguarding López Obrador's legacy across all sectors. Specifically addressing mining, her 86-point proposal underscored that "no additional concessions for open-pit mining will be authorized, and existing concessions will undergo thorough evaluation with community consent and careful assessment of environmental repercussions," 

Nevertheless, experts stressed that Sheinbaum's inclination toward data-driven decision-making could prompt her to reassess some of López Obrador’s mining proposals. "It remains uncertain whether this will lead to any relaxation of restrictions, such as the de facto ban on new open-pit mines. However, we view this as a possibility rather than a probability in the short term,” said Colin Hamilton, Director of Commodities Research, BMO Capital Markets.

Sheinbaum has also advocated for boosting the extraction of critical minerals, such as lithium and copper, to support the production of electric vehicles. "Lithium reserves in Sonora and other regions of the country are found within clay deposits, requiring innovative extraction technologies that are still in early development. We have collaborated with and visited countries where such technologies are advanced, and we are committed to furthering our efforts in this area," Sheinbaum stated.

MORENA’s Legacy on Critical Minerals

In 2022, the Mexican government opted to nationalize lithium and other critical mineral resources, acknowledging their significance for industries like electromobility. The proposal suggests that lithium and other key minerals should receive special legal treatment distinct from the previous Mining Law.

On April 28, 2023, the Plenary of the Senate, composed only of MORENA senators approved the Mining Law. Among the main highlights of the reform were a reduction of mining concession times and the facilitation of permit cancellations. To date, companies have filed over 500 amparos against the reform, arguing that their rights to legal certainty, legality, and legitimate expectations are being undermined by the reforms. In March 2024, the Mexican Supreme Court decided to temporarily suspend the Mining Law to protect the rights of companies with active concessions. 

On Feb. 5, President López Obrador presented a new package of reforms, including a ban on open-pit mining permits and limiting water concessions for the industry. The president seeks to no longer grant concessions for open-pit mining projects due to the negative impact on the environment and the adverse health effects on communities living nearby. Pablo Méndez, Managing Partner, EC Rubio, told MBN that the proposed changes have increased concerns about investment from both domestic and international companies, despite Mexico's prominent position as a leading global mining producer.