12 Logistics Trends for 2025

Nowadays, where nearshoring has been operating regularly for a couple of years and with government changes in the USMCA region, the first half of 2025 brings global uncertainty regarding how operations will proceed in North America. We have been working on this logistics kickoff article for four years. Now, planning periods, previously spanning three years, have decreased to two years, and in the near future, these trends will be addressed annually.

Both shippers and logistics service providers must have the ability to react immediately to the rapid changes in both national and global markets.

The 12 trends are as follows:

1. Increase in Production Volumes
   This stems from the establishment of new production plants in Mexico across various sectors, as well as the expansion of existing plants. On Jan. 13, 2025, the Mexican government launched the "Plan Mexico" initiative to foster economic development, well-being, and sustainability in the country. The goal is to position Mexico among the world's leading economies. Key sectors to be promoted include the automotive industry, semiconductors, energy, and aerospace.

2. An "Aggressive" Shipper Market Focused on Tariff Reduction
   This trend has sparked debate, as carriers argue for rate increases, while shippers push for direct freight cost reductions. Productive tariff negotiations should focus on operational aspects, such as optimizing vehicle capacity, using more logical and efficient routes, collaborative shipping among companies (co-loadings), faster payment terms for services, and other logistical innovations before simply requesting tariff reductions. Note that, as the dollar continues to strengthen, contracts in Mexico are inevitably tied to exchange rates. Tariff negotiations must be financially sound.

3. Clusterization as a Regional Strategy
   “If you want to grow, join a group,” said Israeli historian Noah Harari. This is a brief but powerful statement. A cluster is not an association, chamber, or council. It is a group of companies aiming to enhance the logistics of a region, state, or country. It involves industry-driven solutions and a quintuple-helix collaboration among industry, academia, government, society, and financial backers. Queretaro is a leading example, with clusters in automotive, aerospace, manufacturing, energy, IT, health, viticulture, and logistics — all certified by ESCA (European Cluster Certification) and global forums like TCI, with Japanese JICA certification.

4. Shortage of Transportation Operators
   While this is a global issue, North America is particularly affected due to increased commercial volumes from nearshoring. In Mexico alone, 2024 ended with a shortage of 54,000 drivers, which is projected to grow to 126,000 by 2028. Transport companies are focusing on retention and career development to make the profession attractive again. This challenge is compounded by rising road insecurity in Mexico, involving theft, toll booth takeovers, endless highway repairs, and restrictive operational hours.

5. Digital Brokers as a Logistics Solution
   Digital brokers remain a favored option for transport buyers, offering technological convenience by centralizing services through one provider rather than managing multiple carriers. However, the relationship between digital brokers and carriers remains unresolved, with brokers needing to profit from their services while balancing the interests of asset owners.

6. Robust Technology and Telemetry
   The shift from customer service to customer experience (CX) has made logistics more demanding, with fill-rate requirements exceeding 95%. This perfection needs technology, particularly in industries like FMCG, automotive, e-commerce, and retail. Companies now rely on predictive analytics, AI-driven demand planning, full-order tracking, and KPIs, which have introduced roles like Business Intelligence Executives.

7. Growth of National and Global Logistics Operators and New Entrants
   Major acquisitions continue, such as DSV acquiring Schenker and Traxión purchasing Solistica. New entrants bring competitive rates that attract industry attention, although their market ramp-up may take time. Legal teams must carefully review contracts to ensure adherence to tariff commitments and equipment placements.

8. Rail and Intermodal Logistics
   Domestic intermodal transport grew 20% in 2024, with rail transit times improving significantly ( San Luis Potosi to Chicago in 3.9 days,for example). Rail-based logistics are expanding to include frozen freight, contributing to cold-chain logistics in the USMCA region. Developing more national IMCs (Intermodal Marketing Companies) is critical.

9. New Foreign Trade Regulations
   Political changes in Mexico, the United States, and Canada (with Justin Trudeau's resignation) have increased tariffs on Mexican exports due to factors like China, drug trafficking, and migration. Certifications like CTPAT and OEA are increasingly mandatory, and IMMEX and CIVA programs are being scrutinized. Additionally, the EU-Mexico trade agreement (TLCUEM 2.0) will be updated, requiring clear strategies to support national production systems.

10. Green Logistics
    Companies are adapting their portfolios to align with global ecological trends. Green logistics involve reducing CO2 emissions and adopting clean transportation methods. This is becoming a standard expectation and greater involvement is recommended.

11. Workforce Development
    There is an urgent need to train logistics technicians, as the middle tier of the national logistics pyramid requires talent development and better wages. The gap between technicians and senior-level salaries is significant. Additionally, the industry faces a high unemployment rate for logistics professionals over 50, often due to high salaries. This mature talent pool represents a valuable but underutilized resource.

12. E-Commerce Growth
    Giants like Walmart, Coppel, Amazon, Mercado Libre, Alibaba, Temu, and Liverpool dominate the sector. However, the increasing demand for deliveries in remote locations raises costs. Urban warehouses (dark stores) are becoming more common to enable faster customer deliveries. Airspace and domestic delivery networks are congested, increasing freight costs.

Omnichannel strategies (B2B, B2C) are expanding, making technology essential for modern logistics chains. Political developments in the USMCA region must be closely monitored, and service level, inventory accuracy, forecasting precision, logistics costs, and carbon footprint should all be prioritized.

Let us prepare to tackle these trends in 2025.
Wishing you a great logistics year ahead.

Special thanks to the logistics experts who contributed to this article:
Uber Freight, Michelin, PELT, V Modal, Global Compliance Advice, CFI, Mabe, Redwood Logistics, Rheem, EASO, Logis Storage, Rhenus, Palos Garza, CPKC, Andrea, DHL Global Forwarding, Afico, Sunset Transportation, and V Modal