Electric Transition: Will it Arrive on Time?

The entire world is suffering from a serious alteration of the climate due to global warming. In 1988, the international scientific community first recognized the existence of the greenhouse effect when an increase in global temperature compared to the previous century was observed. 

More than 30 years later, a survey conducted by IPSOS for the World Economic Forum revealed that 56 percent of adults in 34 countries surveyed say that climate change has already had a severe effect on where they live.

In 2019, the British parliament was the first to declare a state of alert for the environment and COP26, the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, recognized the climate emergency for the first time.

Not-so-close agreements were established for the abandonment of fossil fuels and the activation of the financing commitment for underdeveloped countries totaling US$100      billion, among others.

The effects are systemic, so it is not possible to leave in the hands of a single actor the responsibility to organize, promote or implement actions to curb a phenomenon in which the first and most affected will be the least favored segments of the population. 

In the freight transport sector, responsible for 30 percent of the generation of greenhouse      gases (GHG), the answer has come quickly: at the recent IAA Commercial Vehicle Show in Hannover we saw the absence of internal combustion vehicles, in a mostly electric scenario, followed by hydrogen equipment.

In Mexico, the main chambers of the automotive sector have met to request solutions and agreements on regulatory and safety issues that contribute to overcoming obstacles that reduce the competitiveness and efficiency of transportation and, of course, to put on the table the need for fiscal incentives, such as those existing in other countries to support and accelerate the electric transition. 

Recently, Estafeta received its first 10 100 percent electric units; by the end of 2022, we will have a total of 35 units. These are small vehicles that we will use for last-mile service operations.

We would like to start with a larger fleet, but the availability of vehicles with the right characteristics to support our operation is still extremely limited. 

This first step in the transition to electric mobility required an analysis beyond the cost of the units. It is necessary to ensure the level of efficiency and compliance; the reduction of emissions must go hand in hand with the profitability of the business.

In hard data, the cost of electric vehicles is higher, and the investment considers the installation of charging infrastructure, which in the case of operational vehicles must be highly efficient because it must be done during the night with eight hours on average and one charger per vehicle. Hence the importance of fiscal incentives.

A critical point to consider is the energy source. The energy sector is another of those responsible for GHG generation. Although the key decisions regarding energy sources are in the hands of global governments, it is possible with our purchasing decisions to be active drivers of change.

Another fundamental factor is the battery. its weight and size reduce its operating capacity, the optimal recharging time is at least 8 hours and the disposal of the battery at the end of its useful life must be adequate to avoid further impact on the environment. 

I would say then that the transition to electric mobility can be integrally responsible, taking care of all aspects related to the activation of a fleet or irresponsibly without observing the associated concepts. At Estafeta we have opted for the former. 

Overall, the advances in electric mobility are important, although still scarce for the size of the problem we are trying to solve.

Hydrogen, on the other hand, is rapidly positioning itself as the great alternative for cargo transport, although it is much less developed, due to which the price of vehicles is still very high and the related infrastructure is scarce —the so-called "hydrogen plants," some 540 in the world, are practically non-existent in relation to the number of electric chargers available. Worldwide, some 25,000 hydrogen cars are currently in circulation, compared to almost 20 million electric cars.

However, it is difficult to ignore the advantages of hydrogen; this technology goes further, and the only waste generated by a hydrogen vehicle is water vapor. 

Research from Germany's Fraunhofer Institute says the window of opportunity for hydrogen has long since closed in the face of the advance of electric batteries, which have seen an increase in kilometers traveled with less charging time, and says the application possibilities for hydrogen are greatest for aviation and rail. 

Japan and China do not seem to agree, as they continue to advance in the development of this option, which so far is the least polluting. The refueling time is only 15 minutes, a tank can yield up to a thousand kilometers with 65 tons of charge, without large batteries and having as a main input an unlimited element on the planet. 

It makes sense to think that the nascent electric industry, with billions of dollars in development, should highlight the considerable qualities of electric vehicles in expectation of global sales. In Mexico, it is truly clear that the options available for foreign cargo transportation are few. From our trench, we will continue to explore and seek to reduce our volume of CO2 emissions to the environment; we will do the best we can, with what we have. 

The question that hangs in the air is: How long can our planet wait? Or how long is it in our interest to postpone the development of alternatives to curb he increasingly dangerous growth in global temperature?