Mexico Must Choose Two Wheels Instead of Four Post-Pandemic

On Monday, Mexico opened the traffic flood gates as companies across the country returned to work for the first time since the beginning of Phase 3 of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Bloomberg, Apple showed a leap in traffic and movement throughout cities, though public transport use remained low.

The country is not yet back in the swing of things and Mexico City, which enjoys the country’s most developed public transport network, is still on red, signaling the strictest restrictions on movement in the nation’s traffic-light system.

Despite the mobility imbalance that the first days of the “new normal” modality will present, the reduced use of public transport will likely last for months as people attempt to shield themselves from the virus’ health risks. Authorities and commuters now face a choice between how that slack can be picked up. A rise in the use of private cars is almost certain but for the ongoing health of city dwellers, alternative means of transport must be promoted.

A study by the London School of Economics found that following the 7/7 bombings in London in 2005, which affected both the London Underground and bus system, there was “a 12.8 percent drop (in public transportation use) in the week immediately following 7/7 during the weekdays. The impact on weekends was even larger – a 32 percent decrease occurred.” This figure, according to the study, lasted until mid-September.

This “avoidance” behavior, as the study describes, was a reaction to perceived threat being heightened following a catastrophic event.

During the 2003 SARS outbreak in Taipei, Taiwan, each new case announced (there were 668 in total) resulted in the loss of 1,200 riders from the city’s transport system. Taipei’s transport system supported 1 million journeys each day between 2001 and 2005, in comparison to the almost 9 million daily journeys that take place on Mexico City’s transport system. But interestingly, the National Central University reports that the highest drop in public transport journeys occurred after the peak of the SARS spread. It also found that though the SARS pandemic occurred between March and April of 2003 – far shorter than the timespan of COVID-19 – ridership on Taipei’s transport system did not return to pre-SARS levels until the beginning of 2004.

Across 2005, when the London 7/7 attacks occurred, the use of bicycles grew by 11.85 percent. This was driven by the desire of commuters to find alternative – and viable – means of transport as they looked to avoid traveling on the Tube or bus.

There are obvious contrasts between London and Mexico City. One is the distance that individuals within both cities travel from home to work. Many more people travel across large areas into Mexico City for work than they do in London. Similarly, government support measures like the UK’s Ride to Work scheme, a tax exemption initiative introduced in 1999 to promote the purchase of bicycles and reduce the environmental impact of cars, does not exist in Mexico. But in 2005, London’s bike-share was five years away and the city’s bike infrastructure was less developed than Mexico City’s is today.

Both 7/7 and SARS numbers show that public transport use will drop in Mexico City for the next few months at least. Mexico City residents therefore have two options: to make more journeys by car or find alternative means, like bicycles. Considering the pre-pandemic traffic levels in Mexico City lowering air quality to a rate that exceeds WHO contamination standards for 77 percent of the year, there is only one choice if the health of residents is considered.

On World Bike Day, it is time for Mexico to choose to hop on the bike, rather than sit behind the wheel.