CFE Presents US$37.5 Billion Expansion Roadmap

The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) presented a US$37.5 billion expansion plan for 2025–2030 to nearly 250 institutional investors, establishing a co-investment framework to modernize Mexico's generation and transmission networks. This initiative responds to persistent grid congestion, rising industrial power demand, and a federal target to add 20 GW of renewable capacity with mandatory battery storage. The strategy directly impacts institutional funds (AFOREs), private project developers, qualified suppliers, and heavy industrial power consumers navigating Mexico's evolving Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) regulations.

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CFE hosted the First CFE Investor Meeting 2026 at the National Museum of Energy and Technology (MUNET), bringing together nearly 250 domestic and international investors from pension fund managers (AFOREs), commercial banks, energy firms, and regulatory authorities. The government considers the gathering a platform to outline capital allocation strategies and private participation mechanisms designed to modernize Mexico's generation and transmission network.

During the event, Minister of Energy Luz Elena González stated that the forum served to align public and private capital around strategic power infrastructure through transparent, competitive bidding processes for both private and joint venture developments.

Under the National Electrical System Expansion Plan 2025–2030, Eugenio Amador Finance Director, CFE, outlined projected capital expenditures totaling US$37.5 billion toward generation and grid expansion projects. "By 2030, these viable and replicable financing structures will be underway for our new investment projects. Likewise, a world-class electrical infrastructure will be in operation, enabling economic and social development," Amador noted.

A central mechanism for private sector participation includes the Mixed Development Schemes, whose initial tender received bids for over 38GW, five times the original 7.5 GW target. This first round awarded 8,025MW across more than 30 projects representing over US$10 billion in committed capital, prompting CFE to launch a second call that integrates battery energy storage systems (BESS) for the first time.

Analysis from Seth Feaster, Energy Data Analyst, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), highlights that this expansion comes after 25 years in which fossil fuels generated nearly 80% of Mexico's power. Feaster notes that natural gas expanded from 22% of generation in 2000 to 62% in 2024, making the new federal mandate, which requires awarded projects to co-locate battery storage equal to at least 30% of capacity with a minimum three-hour discharge duration, essential to reduce reliance on costly gas peaker plants and address regional grid constraints.

The state power utility also detailed its debt profile and capital market access. In January 2026, CFE executed an international bond issuance for US$1.5 billion that attracted 270 institutional investors and generated US$10.45 billion in demand. On the domestic market, the utility completed a MX$20 billion debt placement with maturities stretching up to 40 years.

In transmission, CFE has slated US$6.9 billion toward 154 grid projects through 2030, with US$2.5 billion structured through CFE Fibra E to leverage long-term pension fund savings. 

"The Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being 2026–2030 foresees a historic investment of approximately MX$5.6 trillion across eight strategic sectors. More than half of these resources are concentrated in the energy sector,” Minister of Finance Edgar Amador highlighted.

A Decadal Shift in the Wholesale Electricity Market

This public-private push aligns with broader industry analysis marking the 10-year of Mexico's Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM), which has expanded to encompass 127 registered generators, 56 qualified suppliers, and over 1,300 qualified users across mining, automotive, retail, and state enterprises. 

According to José Robledo, Commercial Director,  Tuto Power, the new mixed-investment framework introduces essential operational parameters for private participation, requiring CFE to serve as the off-taker for 70% of total project capacity while making the remaining 30% available for spot market or private bilateral contracts. 

Robledo emphasizes that while these structures provide financial certainty to industrial consumers, newly added capacity cannot be fully integrated unless transmission infrastructure expands at pace across both northern industrial corridors and southern regions. “The current expansion plan is considering CFE's own resources, long-term financing, and the use of FIBRA  CFE Fibra to invest more than US$12 billion and 6,500km to expand the national grid and capabilities,” he points out.