Mexico Cuts Gasoline Import Dependency; Natural Gas Imports Grow

Mexico's energy balance in 2025 reveals a deepening structural contradiction: while PEMEX's refining recovery drove a 5% reduction in gasoline imports from the United States, pipeline natural gas imports reached a record 6.638 Bcf/d, covering roughly 77% of national demand, for the third consecutive year. Growing dependency, driven by expanding gas-fired power generation and nearshoring-linked industrial electricity demand, exposes critical vulnerabilities including the absence of domestic gas storage and declining PEMEX production, undermining the Sheinbaum administration's energy sovereignty agenda. Power generators, industrial manufacturers, and energy-intensive investors face heightened exposure to supply disruptions and currency risk tied to US gas pricing.

Mexico closed 2025 with a mixed energy scorecard, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). On one front, the country made measurable headway in reducing its dependence on imported gasoline, continuing a trend that began in 2023 and has been central to the energy sovereignty agenda of the federal government. On the other, Mexico's natural gas imports from the United States reached an all-time high for the third consecutive year, deepening a structural dependency that experts warn poses a growing risk to the country's energy security.

Gasoline purchases from the United States averaged 446Mb/d in 2025, representing a 5% decline from the prior year and part of a sustained downward trajectory since 2023. The improvement tracks directly with PEMEX's refining recovery: as reported in the company's 4Q25 results, Mexico's National Refining System increased crude processing by 44.4% year-on-year in 4Q25, producing 1.177MMb/d of petroleum products. With domestic fuel output rising, the need to plug supply gaps with US imports has gradually diminished.

That progress, however, is overshadowed by what is happening on the natural gas side. Mexico's pipeline imports of natural gas from the United States averaged 6.638Bcf/d in 2025, a 3.4% increase over 2024, a new peak since records began in 1973, and the third consecutive annual increase. The EIA estimates total Mexican gas consumption at approximately 8.6Bcf/d, meaning imported volumes now cover roughly 77% of the country's total demand. Natural gas plays a critical role in Mexico's energy matrix, with 60% of total demand coming from combined-cycle power plants, and that appetite for gas-fired generation has only grown as the country's electricity system has expanded.

The 2025 figure consolidated the year as a record-setter in nearly every monthly category: with every month except July reaching new historical highs, and August alone setting an all-time monthly record of 228.6Bcf, up 3.6% from the previous August peak. Mexico remained the largest single buyer of US natural gas throughout the year, receiving more than twice the daily volume shipped to Canada, the second-largest importer.

The underlying driver, as the EIA notes, is Mexico's power sector. Mexico has expanded pipeline interconnections and commissioned new links, including the Southeast Gateway pipeline completed in 2025, to supply growing electricity demand from the Yucatan Peninsula and other regions. As industrial activity intensifies, particularly in manufacturing states attracting nearshoring investment, electricity demand has climbed, pulling more gas-fired generation into the grid and increasing import volumes accordingly.

The structural imbalance behind these numbers has been building for years. Between 2000 and 2024, Mexico's natural gas imports from the United States grew more than twentyfold, from 287.9MMcf/d to 6.4Bcf/d, while PEMEX's domestic gas production dropped 7.7% year-on-year in 1Q25 alone, falling from 4.7Bcf/d in 1Q24 to 4.4Bcf/d. The company has historically consumed most of its own output internally, leaving the broader electricity and industrial sector almost entirely dependent on cross-border flows.

Critics have long argued that this dependency carries risks that go beyond cost. Carlos Hernández, President of the Energy Commission, COPARMEX, has warned that relying on imports for 70% of the country's natural gas consumption undermines any credible claim to energy sovereignty, even as Mexico holds proven and probable reserves equivalent to roughly 40 years of current demand. Mexico's lack of natural gas storage, with most countries maintaining reserves equivalent to 40 to 90 days of demand, is described by analysts as the most dangerous gap in the country's energy security architecture, leaving the system with virtually no buffer against supply disruptions.

Fitch Ratings has previously projected that Mexico's reliance on US pipeline gas will continue to rise due to growing demand, limited domestic production, and expanding pipeline infrastructure, while also warning that this exposure leaves Mexico vulnerable to currency fluctuations and potential supply disruptions, particularly amid trade-related uncertainties.

For the Sheinbaum administration, the 2025 data presents a strategic dilemma. The narrative of fuel self-sufficiency is gaining ground in the refining sector, and PEMEX's production increases are real. But the simultaneous record-breaking rise in natural gas imports tells a story of an energy system growing faster than its domestic supply base can sustain, one where sovereignty goals and structural realities remain in tension.