Mexico’s Growing Dependence on US Natural Gas Deepens

During 1Q25, Mexico recorded its highest-ever natural gas import levels from the United States. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the United States exported an average of 187Bcf of natural gas per month to Mexico in the first three months of the year, representing over a fourth of total US natural gas exports during that period. This represented a 4.6% increase at 6.25Bcf/d compared to 1Q24, when imports averaged 5.98Bcf/d.

At the same time, PEMEX’s natural gas production dropped 7.7% year-on-year, falling from 4.7Bcf/d in 1Q24 to 4.4Bcf/d this year, with the state-owned company importing an average of 810MMcf/d in 1Q25.

Natural gas has powered more than half of Mexico’s electricity supply since 2009. By 2024, it accounted for 58% of total power generation, up from just under 20% in 2000. Today, over half of the electricity generated in the country depends on natural gas imported from the United States, as domestic production continues to fall short of demand. According to CONAHCYT, Mexico spent approximately US$6.8 billion importing 6.18Bcf/d in 2023. In 1Q25 alone, the country has been spending about US$658 million per month on US gas imports, based on monthly price estimates from the US Energy Information Administration.

Between 2000 and 2024, gas imports from the United States grew more than twentyfold, from 287.9MMcf/d to 6.4Bcf/d. Meanwhile, only around 15% of domestically produced gas is made available to the general market; the rest is consumed internally by PEMEX.

According to the National Strategy for the Hydrocarbons and Natural Gas Sectors, the Mexican government expects domestic production to reach 5Bcf/d by 2027. However, PEMEX has not produced above that threshold since 2017, with peak output surpassing 7Bcf/d back in 2009.

The relevance of natural gas for Mexico’s energy sovereignty and long-term strategy has become a recurring topic in national discussions. For Vania Laban, President of the Mexican Association of Natural Gas, the country’s continued reliance on gas is rooted in pragmatism.

“The investment needs, both in electricity and gas, are enormous,” said Laban. “These are sectors that also require significant investments in infrastructure. I believe there is a lot of work to be done on various fronts. We cannot think of the electricity sector without thinking about natural gas. So, when we talk about energy, we have to talk about that pair, gas and electricity. We cannot separate them, at least in the short term.” 

Mexico’s dependence on imported gas is not only a costly solution to its energy needs; it also raises concerns about national security. According to Carlos Hernández, President of the Energy Commission at COPARMEX, this reliance undercuts the country’s energy independence.

“We cannot talk about sovereignty if we continue importing 70% of the natural gas in our country,” Hernandez. “We have proven and probable natural gas reserves in our country equivalent to 40 years of our current demand. In an environmentally friendly way, we need to start extracting that natural gas to put it to work for the benefit of Mexicans. That is how we will reduce [dependence] and become competitive.” 

Advocates for greater domestic production frame natural gas as a “transition fuel,” given that it emits roughly 40% less CO₂ than coal and 30% less than oil. But critics point to the environmental toll, particularly methane emissions, as a serious drawback that prevents it from being a true transition fuel. According to the National Resource Defense Council, methane is one of the most potent greenhouse gases, with a heat-trapping capacity up to 80 times greater than carbon dioxide in the two decades following its release. According to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, methane is responsible for roughly two thirds as much of today’s global warming as CO₂.

Research from the Environmental Defense Fund shows that methane leaks from the country’s 4.8 million km of gas pipelines could release 1 to 2.3 million mt of methane into the atmosphere each year, roughly equivalent to emissions from 50 million cars annually. Natural gas extraction also contributes to fracking, which can pollute groundwater, harm ecosystems, and pose long-term environmental risks during transport.

Despite these concerns, both the Mexican government and private sector appear to be moving ahead with plans to ramp up natural gas production. The argument: more gas means lower energy costs, stronger national sovereignty, and a strategic bridge in the country’s broader energy transition.