Mexico's Mix Surges: The Week in Oil and Gas

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, pushing Mexico's crude export blend to its highest level in seven months and threatening a fresh inflationary wave across economies dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas. The Mexican export oil mix closed Monday at US$66.63/b, a 5% jump from US$63.46/b the previous Friday. This was its largest single-week surge since Oct. 23, 2025, when US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil triggered a 6.3% spike in a single session.

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Mexico’s Mix Nears MX$70/b; US-Israel-Iran War Escalates

The immediate trigger is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that serves as the world's most critical oil artery. Crude tanker transits through the strait fell to just four vessels on March 1, the day after hostilities broke out, versus a daily average of 24 since January, according to vessel-tracking firm Vortexa. Tehran has attacked five ships since the closure began, and as of Tuesday the strait has been blocked for four consecutive days, stranding hundreds of tankers loaded with crude and liquefied natural gas near regional hubs such as Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, unable to reach buyers in Asia and Europe.

Mexico Cuts Gasoline Import Dependency; Natural Gas Imports Grow

Mexico closed 2025 with a mixed energy scorecard, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). On one front, the country made measurable headway in reducing its dependence on imported gasoline, continuing a trend that began in 2023 and has been central to the energy sovereignty agenda of the federal government. On the other, Mexico's natural gas imports from the United States reached an all-time high for the third consecutive year, deepening a structural dependency that experts warn poses a growing risk to the country's energy security.

Gasoline purchases from the United States averaged 446Mb/d in 2025, representing a 5% decline from the prior year and part of a sustained downward trajectory since 2023. The improvement tracks directly with PEMEX's refining recovery: as reported in the company's 4Q25 results, Mexico's National Refining System increased crude processing by 44.4% year-on-year in 4Q25, producing 1.177MMb/d of petroleum products. With domestic fuel output rising, the need to plug supply gaps with US imports has gradually diminished.

US‑Israel Strikes on Iran Disrupt Global Shipping, Energy Routes

The ongoing US–Israel military campaign against Iran has heightened risks to global energy and shipping markets by threatening two of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Experts agree that any prolonged disruption could choke energy exports and ripple through containerized cargo flows between Asia, Europe and North America.

The Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, serves as a critical global oil passage, with 2023 flows averaging 20.9MMb/d, roughly 20% of worldwide petroleum liquids, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, accounted for an estimated 12% of seaborne oil trade and 8% of liquefied natural gas shipments in the first half of 2023. Together, these two waterways form a vital corridor for both energy exports and containerized cargo traveling between Asia, Europe, and North America.

PEMEX Reports 2025: Lower Debt, Surge in Refining

PEMEX closed 2025 with its lowest financial debt in 11 years, marking a turning point for the state oil company after years of mounting liabilities, supplier arrears, and credit downgrades. Presenting its 4Q25 and full-year results, PEMEX reported a set of improvements spanning debt management, refining performance, and fuel sales, outcomes the company attributes to its Comprehensive Capitalization and Financing Strategy, developed in coordination with the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) and the Ministry of Energy.

Total financial debt closed at US$84.5 billion, down from US$97.6 billion at the end of 2024, representing a 13% reduction year-on-year and a 19% decline compared to 2018 levels, marking the fifth consecutive year of debt reduction. The strategy centered on planned bond refinancing and buyback operations that smoothed out debt maturities scheduled between 2026 and 2028, meaningfully reducing rollover risk in the near term.