Oil Prices Stabilize Following Israel-Iran Ceasefire

International oil prices have stabilized at around US$66/b following the Israel-Iran ceasefire reached on June 24, which eased fears over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the agreement, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has averaged US$65.10/b, while Brent Crude has hovered around US$66.82/b. Mexico’s crude oil mix also settled at approximately US$61/b.

These are the lowest oil prices seen since the days before Israel’s initial strike on Iran, though prices remain slightly above the early May lows of around US$60/b. Despite reduced geopolitical tensions, markets continue to price in some uncertainty.

Natural gas prices have followed a similar cooling trend. The Henry Hub benchmark has fallen by 15% since peaking at US$4/MMBtu on June 19, now trading at around US$3.42/MMBtu. The Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF also dropped around 18%, from €41.48 to €33.90/MWh over the same period.

However, this downward pressure may be temporary. As summer heat intensifies and electricity demand surges, natural gas prices are expected to rebound as more gas is used to meet power generation needs.