OPEC 2026 Demand Growth Forecast Cut to 400Mb/d

OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive month to 400Mb/d while raising its 2027 projection to 2.4MMb/d amid tightening crude supplies and rising benchmark prices. The persistent downward revisions to near-term demand highlight global economic headwinds and shifting consumption patterns that directly impact energy trade, revenue projections for national oil company PEMEX, and foreign direct investment across Mexico’s broader oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors. Consequently, domestic refiners, private energy operators, and industrial fuel consumers face heightened market volatility and shifting supply dynamics across North American energy supply chains.

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OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400Mb/d in its Monthly Oil Market Report, marking the organization’s fifth consecutive monthly downward revision. The adjustment reflects a 100Mb/d contraction in OECD demand, driven by industrial weakness in Europe and Asia-Pacific, while non-OECD demand is projected to expand by 500Mb/d, led by Latin America, Africa, and other Asian countries. 

In contrast to its 2026 projection, OPEC raised its oil demand growth forecast for 2027 to 2.4MMb/d, expecting non-OECD countries to account for 1.9MMb/d of that expansion. Meanwhile, global economic growth forecasts were at 3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. 

Concurrently, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 24.08MMb/d in August 2026, increasing by 346Mb/d month-on-month. However, regional disruptions caused sharp localized declines, with Iranian output falling by 399Mb/d to 2.08MMb/d and Saudi Arabian production easing by 75Mb/d to 7.28MMb/d. Total Declaration of Cooperation crude production stood at 38.05MMb/d. 

These supply constraints and refinery outages in Eastern Europe pushed benchmark crude prices higher in August, with the OPEC Reference Basket gaining US$3.45/b to average US$86.44/b and ICE Brent rising to US$88.08/b. On the inventory front, OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 9.8 million barrels in July to 2,763 million barrels, though they remain 47.9 million barrels below their five-year average, providing 59.3 days of forward cover. 

Crude Benchmark Price Movements and Futures Structure

These supply constraints and refinery outages in Eastern Europe pushed benchmark crude prices higher in August. The OPEC Reference Basket value increased by US$3.45/b month-on-month to average US$86.44/b. Futures benchmarks also recorded widespread gains: the ICE Brent front-month contract rose by US$4.11/b to average US$88.08/b, while NYMEX WTI gained US$3.23/b to average US$82.45/b, widening the Brent–WTI spread by US$0.88/b to US$5.63/b. The GME Oman front-month contract saw the strongest gain, rising US$10.36/b to average US$87.88/b.

Forward curves steepened further into backwardation as prompt-month prices drew support from physical supply tightness and robust buying for prompt-loading cargoes by Asian refiners. Speculative sentiment turned increasingly bullish, with hedge funds and money managers expanding their combined ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI net long positions by 12% between late July and late August, concentrated heavily in ICE Brent contracts. On the inventory front, OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 9.8MMb in July to 2.7 billion b, remaining 47.9MMb below their five-year average and providing 59.3 days of forward cover.

Non-DoC Supply Dynamics and Upstream Rig Activity

Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to expand by 600Mb/d in 2026 to average 54.8MMb/d, driven primarily by output growth in Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Argentina. For 2027, non-DoC liquids production is projected to grow by an additional 600Mb/d to average 55.5MMb/d, led by expansions in Qatar, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. 

In the United States, total liquids output is expected to rise by 450Mb/d in 2026 to average 22.67MMb/d, supported by Permian tight oil expansion. However, US growth is projected to decelerate to 30Mb/d in 2027, averaging 22.7MMb/d as capital discipline and mature basin decline rates temper drilling momentum. Upstream field metrics show the total active US drilling rig count standing at 588 as of early September 2026, up by 51 rigs year-on-year, with 449 rigs dedicated to oil operations.