PEMEX 2026 E&P Investment Stands at MX$102.1 Billion

PEMEX has issued an official clarification rejecting an El Universal report that claimed the company severely cut its first-quarter exploration and crude production budget. While both parties cite the exact same first-quarter figure of MX$81.6 billion in own-resource spending, the dispute hinges on framing: El Universal highlights this amount as a 5.9% spending shortfall against the approved 1Q26 plan that exacerbates Mexico's production drop below 1.6 million barrels per day, while PEMEX refocuses on its full-year MX$102.1 billion capital projection, which incorporates an extra MX$20.5 billion from a specialized sovereign financial strengthening program. However, independent sector analysts back the critical outlook, noting a steady decline in active drilling rigs from 32 to 25 through May 2026 and warning that newly awarded public-private mixed exploration contracts will not yield offsetting crude volumes until well past 2033.

PEMEX clarified a report from El Universal, PEMEX castiga aún más producción de petróleo crudo, stating its content is inaccurate. The company stated that for fiscal year 2026, capitalizable investment planned for the Exploration and Extraction segment amounts to MX$102.1 billion, of which MX$81.6 billion will be exercised with PEMEX's own resources, with an additional MX$20.5 billion in capitalizable investment paid through resources from the Investment Financing Program, a financing scheme coordinated by the SHCP through Banobras as part of PEMEX's broader financial strengthening strategy.

PEMEX stated the 2026 investments are aimed at increasing and improving the quality of oil and gas reserves, raising the reserve replacement rate to contribute to production recovery, and strengthening the reliability of hydrocarbon production and transport infrastructure. The company added that it discloses its operational and financial information periodically, in strict compliance with applicable national and international regulations.

What El Universal Reported

The dispute centers on first-quarter capital deployment, not the full-year figure PEMEX cited in its rebuttal. According to El Universal, journalist Everardo Martínez reported that PEMEX again cut investment capital at its exploration, extraction, and crude production unit, reducing capital deployment between January and March against what had been programmed for the period. The approved budget for the subsidiary stood at MX$86.7 billion for the 1Q16 but information the company submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission indicated that MX$81.6 billion was actually invested, a 5.9% shortfall against the quarterly plan.

El Universal reported that the cut impacts the production platform and moves PEMEX further from its business plan target of extracting 1.8MMb/d, against a current level of 1.6MMb/d.

Where the Two Figures Diverge, Where They Align

A close reading shows the MX$81.6 billion figure is not actually in dispute: both PEMEX's rebuttal and El Universal's reporting cite the same MX$81.6 billion in own-resource investment for the segment. The disagreement is about framing and completeness. El Universal calculated the shortfall against the MX$86.7 billion quarterly budget approved for the first three months of the year, presenting the gap as a 5.9% cut that complicates PEMEX's production targets. PEMEX's rebuttal instead presents the full-year 2026 figure of MX$102.1 billion, combining the MX$81.6 billion in own resources with MX$20.5 billion in financing-program-backed capitalizable investment. without directly addressing whether the first-quarter own-resource deployment fell short of its specific quarterly target.

In other words, PEMEX's response broadens the time frame and funding sources under discussion rather than disputing the underlying MX$81.6 billion first-quarter figure itself — a pattern that leaves the central claim in El Universal's reporting, that 1Q26own-resource capital execution came in below the approved quarterly budget, unaddressed by the company's informational card.

Gonzalo Monroy, Director General, GMEC, offered a sharper assessment of the production trajectory implied by the reduced drilling activity. "We are heading directly to 1.2MMb/d in 2027, which means that once water is discounted, we would be at one million barrels of extraction during the next year," Monroy said. GMEC's tracking of PEMEX's own reported figures shows that all assets counted as active drilling rigs declined between January and May, with the rig count falling from 32 to 25 over the first five months of the year.

The Mixed Contract Counterweight

Through the new regulatory framework, the current administration has implemented mixed investment schemes in oil exploration and extraction. Ten contracts have been awarded so far this term: seven in a first block, including fields such as Macavil and Tamaulipas, and three more recently: Rabasa, San Ramón, and Cinco Presidentes. Combined, the mixed contracts are projected to allow PEMEX to produce up to 450Mb/d, but forecasts indicate those developments will not materialize until beyond 2033, meaning the mixed contract pipeline provides no near-term offset to the production decline GMEC's drilling rig data points toward.

El Universal's report also revisited the Petrobras MoU signed on June 23 with a notably more skeptical lens than the initial announcement coverage. Both Monroy and Grunstein agreed that the agreement fell short of what was expected. The article noted explicitly that the agreement is valid for two years, can be renewed, and does not constitute a binding investment commitment, the same non-binding language MBN's earlier coverage of the deal had flagged as a structural caution against reading it as a firm commercial commitment.