PEMEX Finds Lithium: The Week in O&G

PEMEX confirmed lithium traces in oil wells across the Burgos and Tampico-Misantla basins in Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Tabasco, but specialists warn the findings do not constitute quantified reserves and that commercial production is 10–12 years away, contingent on fracking operations that have not yet begun.

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PEMEX Finds Lithium in Oil Wells; Commercial Output a Decade Away

The lithium is embedded in volcanic rock at 2,000–2,500m depth and would only be extractable as a byproduct of hydrocarbon production, a process requiring infrastructure Mexico does not yet have. LitioMx, the state agency governing lithium under a Supreme Court-validated 2022 Mining Law, received only MX$13.9 million in 2026 budget, covering operational costs only, with no exploration capacity. Analysts warn that the global market is already moving toward sodium batteries, and that Mexico risks missing the critical mineral window entirely: China, Australia, and Chile currently supply 94% of the world's battery-grade lithium, while the automotive industry is already securing supply contracts elsewhere.

PEMEX's Methane Emissions Surge 51% as Infrastructure Deficit Persists

PEMEX's methane emissions rose 51.2% in 1Q26, with the company flaring or venting nearly 3.925Bcf/d, roughly 5.5–6% of total gas production, due to chronic lack of gas capture infrastructure. The company currently flares close to 10% of its gas production, with a methane footprint per barrel estimated at approximately eight times that of ExxonMobil and 83 times that of Saudi Aramco, according to México Evalúa. 

PEMEX is exploring OGMP 2.0 membership and has endorsed the Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative, while the World Bank's GFMR partnership has advanced to pilot projects, including a vent-gas recovery program in Tabasco. With US$97.3 billion in financial debt, PEMEX has no internal capital for large-scale environmental infrastructure without external support. The economic stakes extend beyond emissions: every cubic foot flared is a cubic foot Mexico must import from the United States, the precise dependence that Sheinbaum's energy sovereignty agenda seeks to eliminate.

IEA Warns of Severe Summer Supply Crunch as Inventories Hit Record Lows

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned at a Chatham House session that global oil markets could face severe supply constraints by July or August as strategic reserves draw down and seasonal travel demand peaks. The agency had previously classified the Strait of Hormuz closure as the largest supply disruption in history. The IEA authorized a 400MMb strategic reserve release on March 20, the largest emergency deployment in the organization's history, and confirmed readiness to coordinate additional drawdowns if needed. 

Brent settled at US$106.92/b and WTI at US$100.59/b in the latest session, both approximately 45% above pre-conflict levels. Birol confirmed that restoring Middle East production and refining capacity to pre-war levels will require an extended timeframe even after a deal. Mexico's S&P/BMV IPC declined 0.40% amid the ongoing uncertainty, with mining and industrial shares registering the sharpest losses.

ASEA Inspects Campeche Sound Three Months After Spill Began

More than three months after the Gulf of Mexico hydrocarbon spill was first detected, ASEA conducted an aerial inspection over Cantarell, Ku-Maloob-Zaap, Abkatún-Pol-Chuc, and Litoral-Tabasco production complexes on May 17, coordinated with SEMAR and PEMEX. 

The inspection found plumes near Akal-C and Batab that PEMEX attributed to natural chapopotera seepages, with no active containment losses reported. The official account,which attributes the spill to an illegal vessel discharge and two natural seepages, remains disputed by a coalition of 17 civil society organizations that documented satellite imagery of a hydrocarbon slick above the OLD AK C pipeline as early as February 6, with a PEMEX-contracted repair vessel anchored on-site during that period. 

By late March, 630km of coastline were affected and 894.2 tonnes of hydrocarbon recovered. ASEA filed criminal complaints against 13 suspect vessels. From 2008 to 2024, PEMEX was responsible for 79% of soil contamination from hydrocarbons in Mexico, a track record the Norwegian Government Pension Fund cited when it excluded PEMEX from its portfolio in 2025.

Mexican Export Blend Crosses US$100/b; Fiscal Paradox Deepens

The Mexican Crude Export Blend (MME) was priced at approximately US$106/b as of May 12,roughly 93% above the US$54.9/b federal budget baseline, after a trajectory that saw it surge 80.7% above budget assumptions by late March. The fiscal math is paradoxical: each US$1 increase in the MME generates approximately MX$13.1 billion in additional oil revenues, and Mexico activated its annual hedge in January for downside protection. Yet the same price spike drives up the cost of US natural gas and refined fuel imports, and the IEPS subsidy framework to maintain domestic fuel price caps is costing approximately MX$5–6 billion per week, with IMEF estimating a year-long disruption could generate over MX$220 billion in revenue losses and push the 2026 deficit to 5% of GDP. Being an oil producer does not shield Mexico from an oil shock; it amplifies the contradiction.

PEMEX Posts 11-Year High in Refining, but Olmeca Declines Intra-Quarter

PEMEX's National Refining System processed 1.141MMb/d in 1Q26, the highest quarterly volume in 11 years, up 21.9% year-on-year, driven by Olmeca's contribution of an additional 164Mb/d and Tula's new coking unit adding 39Mb/d. 

Total refined product output reached 1.110Mb/d, with high-value distillates rising 42.5% to 729Mb/d and fuel import dependence falling 23.3%. However, monthly PEMEX data shows Olmeca's output fell 15.7% within the quarter itself, from 187.6Mb/d in January to 158.1Mb/d in March, following a fire on Jan. 23, a pressure failure on Jan. 26, and a second fire on April 9 inside the coke storage warehouse. The refinery has cost over US$18 billion to build and operates at roughly 52% of its 340Mb/d design capacity. The quarterly aggregate headline obscures a reliability trend that the press release did not address.