PEMEX Reports Highest Refining Output in 11 Years in 1Q26

PEMEX’s National Refining System reached an 11-year high in 1Q26, processing 1.141MMb/d and reducing fuel import dependence by 23.3% through the ramp-up of the Olmeca refinery and Tula’s new coking unit. While gasoline and diesel production surged by 42.5%, intra-quarter data reveals a 15.7% output decline at Olmeca due to recurring safety incidents and maintenance shutdowns. This development is critical for Mexico’s energy sovereignty strategy, as the refining sector’s operational reliability directly impacts fiscal stability, downstream supply chains, and the federal goal of eliminating fuel imports by 2030.

PEMEX reported that its National Refining System (SNR) processed an average of 1.141MMb/d of crude in 1Q26, a 21.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025 and the highest quarterly refining volume the company has recorded in 11 years. The results, disclosed in the company's quarterly report and an official press release, mark five consecutive quarters of growth in crude processing in the SNR.

Olmeca and Tula Drive the Gains

Two refineries account for the bulk of the improvement reported. The Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas, Tabasco, the flagship project of the López Obrador administration, contributed an additional 164Mb/d compared to the same period last year. The Tula refinery in Hidalgo added 39Mb/d, driven by the continuous operation of its coking unit, which entered partial service in July 2025 after years of delays.

President Claudia Sheinbaum visited the Tula refinery in January to highlight improvements in processing levels and reiterated her administration's commitment to energy sovereignty and reduced dependence on imported fuels, situating the refinery's progress within the government's broader energy policy.

The Tula coking unit has a long history of delays. Originally projected to be operational by the end of 2023, the project was pushed back repeatedly before partially entering service in mid-2025. The Salina Cruz coking unit, similarly delayed, is now not expected to be completed until the second semester of 2027. Both plants are central to PEMEX's long-term strategy of converting heavy residual fuel oil into higher-value products, but their delayed completion continues to limit the potential of the refining recovery.

Intra-Quarter Fall

PEMEX credited two refineries as the primary engines of the quarterly gain: the Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas, Tabasco, which the company said contributed an additional 164Mb/d versus the same period last year, and the Tula refinery in Hidalgo, which added 39Mb/d following the partial startup of its coking unit in July 2025.

The year-on-year comparison for Olmeca is technically valid; the refinery was contributing near-zero volumes in early 2025. But official monthly data published by PEMEX Transformación Industrial, reviewed by Mexico Business News, shows that Olmeca's output declined through the quarter itself, falling from 187.638Mb/d in January to 181.473Mb/d in February and 158.144Mb/d in March, a 15.7% intra-quarter decline. The 1Q26 average of approximately 175.8Mb/d represents a retreat from the December 2025 peak and leaves the refinery approximately 52% short of its 340Mb/d design capacity.

Crude processed at Dos Bocas declined in parallel: from 205.763Mb/d in January to 205.234Mb/d in February and 187.463Mb/d in March. The parallel decline in both crude throughput and product elaboration confirms the output reduction was driven by lower crude processing rather than yield efficiency issues alone.

Safety Incidents Behind the Decline

The January figure was already below December, linked to two operational incidents: a fire on January 23 and a pressure variation in the catalytic plant on January 26 that required a precautionary safety shutdown. PEMEX subsequently conducted scheduled preventive maintenance from February 14 to March 14. A fire broke out on April 9 inside the coke storage warehouse, marking the fourth safety incident at the refinery in 23 days. Mexico Business News

The recurrence of incidents at Olmeca raises operational reliability questions that the quarterly aggregate figures do not capture. The refinery cost over US$18 billion to build, more than twice its original budget, and has experienced fires, pressure failures, and a prior shutdown related to salt-contaminated crude. The quarterly press release makes no reference to any of these events.

Import Dependence Falls

The downstream improvement produced a measurable effect on Mexico's fuel import bill, according to PEMEX. Domestic fuel sales grew 4.2% year-on-year, while fuel import dependence fell 23.3% compared to the same quarter of 2025. Reducing that dependence has been a central stated objective of both the López Obrador and Sheinbaum administrations, which have framed refinery investment as a strategic priority for energy sovereignty.

The International Energy Agency had previously noted that the full ramp-up of Dos Bocas would be critical for Mexico's goal of becoming a net exporter by 2030. The 1Q26 figures represent tangible progress toward that objective, though the gap between current output and the government's stated target of 1.8MMb/d of total hydrocarbon production remains wide.

High-Value Distillates Lead Production Mix

The increase in crude processing translated directly into higher output of commercially valuable products. According to the press release, total refined product output averaged 1.110Mb/d in 1Q26, also a 21.9% increase year-on-year. High-value distillates, gasoline, diesel, and turbosine, accounted for 65.7% of total production, rising from 511Mb/d to 729Mb/d, a 42.5% increase.

Gasoline production averaged 390Mb/d, up 29.6% from the same quarter in 2025. Diesel production reached 286Mb/d, a 69.9% increase year-on-year. The distillate yield, the share of high-value products extracted from each barrel processed, reached 63.9%, up 9.1 percentage points from the prior year.

Fuel oil production moved in the opposite direction. Output fell 33.1%, from 240Mb/d in 1Q25 to 161Mb/d in 1Q26. PEMEX framed the reduction as a deliberate outcome of refinery optimization, noting that the shift toward higher distillate yields reduces residual output and improves both financial performance and environmental metrics. Historically, fuel oil, a heavy, low-value product, represented 30% to 35% of each barrel processed in Mexico's refineries and was a persistent drag on refining profitability.

Service Station Network Continues to Expand

PEMEX also reported growth in its retail network. As of March 31, 2026, 7,520 service stations operated under the PEMEX Franchise model, a 3.2% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Of those, 45 are directly owned by PEMEX. An additional 1,149 stations operate under the Brand License Use (LUM) scheme.