PEMEX Support Drives MX$284 Billion Revenue Gap

Mexico’s federal government is facing a MX$284 billion revenue shortfall through October 2025 as extraordinary financial support for PEMEX continues to outpace the company’s fiscal contributions, according to México Evalúa. The gap has begun to strain public spending across several ministries and underscores the broader fiscal challenges tied to the state-owned oil company’s financial instability.

Federal data shows that government revenues, excluding PEMEX, CFE, IMSS, and ISSSTE, reached MX$5 trillion from January to October, an annual increase of 8% and slightly above what the budget had projected. Strong tax performance helped lift results, with tax revenues totaling MX$4.49 trillion, up 6.1% from 2024 and MX$90 billion above expectations due to tighter fiscal oversight.

Non-tax, non-oil income also exceeded forecasts. Fees, duties and other government charges generated MX$214 billion, 16.4% higher than last year and MX$43 billion above the programmed amount.

These gains failed to offset PEMEX’s net fiscal drag, however. The company contributed MX$204 billion to the federal budget while receiving MX$386 billion in government support, generating a negative balance of MX$182 billion. When compared with the government’s original target, which anticipated MX$234 billion in net oil revenue by October, the gap becomes wider. The final result fell MX$417 billion short of the projection, driven by unplanned transfers to PEMEX.

The shortfall is beginning to translate into tighter spending. The Ministry of Health operated 26% below its planned budget, the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transport fell 29.1% short, and the Ministry of Environment underspent by 29.2%. The exception was the Ministry of Energy, whose spending rose 181% due to emergency support measures for PEMEX that were not originally approved by Congress.

The strain on public finances comes as PEMEX continues to navigate structural challenges. Production has declined, even as exports and refining activity have ticked upward. By 3Q25, PEMEX had already received more than 179% of the support authorized for the year, reflecting growing finance and debt-service needs.

Mexico Evalúa’s report identifies three broader fiscal trends shaping federal finances this year: PEMEX’s negative net contribution, record-high debt servicing costs of MX$1 trillion, and a sharp 29% decline in physical investment outside PEMEX.

Findings come as Mexico weighs its energy and fiscal priorities for 2026. The administration has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing PEMEX and preserving its central role in national energy policy. But the rising cost of support has renewed debate about the sustainability of the company’s current path, particularly as international oil markets become more competitive and as Mexico faces pressure to expand investment in energy transition infrastructure.

Mexico’s federal government has stated that PEMEX is expected to reach financial self-sufficiency by 2027, reducing its reliance on extraordinary fiscal support. The projection was reiterated by President Claudia Sheinbaum during a November 2025 morning press conference, where she said the company is on a “clear recovery path” following debt support measures implemented this year. Minister of Energy Luz Elena González also told the Senate’s Energy Commission in October 2025 that PEMEX’s medium-term plan aims for the company to operate without federal transfers before the end of the administration. The Ministry of Finance has echoed this position in public briefings tied to the 2026 fiscal outlook, indicating that PEMEX’s simplified tax regime, debt refinancing strategy, and refiners’ integration plan are expected to strengthen cash flow sufficiently to phase out annual budgetary assistance by 2027.