SENER Keeps Unconventional Gas on the Table

Minister of Energy Luz Elena González Escobar has clarified that unconventional gas development via hydraulic fracturing remains a possibility under technical and environmental evaluation by a presidential scientific panel, rather than a finalized policy decision. This potential shift away from previous federal bans aims to address Mexico’s structural vulnerability stemming from its 70% reliance on imported US natural gas, which currently fuels 65% of the country’s power generation. While the strategy aligns with public-private investment frameworks and regional economic plans in northern basins, it faces intense scrutiny from civil society groups and international operators regarding regulatory transparency, physical security, and strict social permitting compliance ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.

Minister of Energy Luz Elena González Escobar reaffirmed the federal government's position on unconventional gas development at an El Financiero forum, describing fracking as "a possibility" — not a decision, while confirming that a scientific panel convened by President Claudia Sheinbaum is actively evaluating whether next-generation extraction technologies could be deployed without the environmental costs associated with conventional hydraulic fracturing.

"We are exploring the technical, environmental, and financial viability of expanding natural gas production in our country by taking advantage of our reserves. We import 70% of our natural gas, a bill we share with the United States," González told the forum. "It is not a fact, it has not been decided, but it is a possibility to reduce the dependence and vulnerability we have with respect to a fuel that produces 65% of Mexico's electricity."

The minister also emphasized the broader investment framework within which the fracking discussion sits. The Sheinbaum administration has set a target that by 2029, 99.9% of the population will have guaranteed access to some form of energy at affordable prices, backed by a combined investment plan through 2030. "Public investment does not compete with private investment — it complements it," González stated, adding that new participation schemes offer competitive opportunities with legal certainty and clear, stable rules with a long-term vision.

The Expert Panel: Who Is Reviewing the Question

The scientific committee assembled by Sheinbaum is led by UNAM President Leonardo Lomelí and includes directors of IPN, UAM, and state universities from Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Veracruz, and Coahuila, plus experts from IMP, the Mexican Institute of Water Technology, and SECIHTI.

Sheinbaum specified that these specialists would focus on areas including water management, geology, geophysics, geothermal energy, hazardous waste, and water recycling. The group was given up to two months from its April formation to issue recommendations on whether methods with lower environmental impact than traditional fracking could be used, including the type of chemicals; the type of water, recycled, saline, or non-potable; and the conditions under which extraction could proceed without affecting ecosystems.

"There are new techniques, new technologies that open the possibility of water being recycled, of not using such powerful chemicals that are difficult to recycle. We must be open to these new technologies to strengthen national sovereignty," Sheinbaum said when presenting the committee.

A Reversal With Political Weight

The debate marks a notable shift in the official position. Former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador opposed fracking on environmental grounds and informally prohibited it. Sheinbaum, who holds a doctorate in energy engineering and built her pre-presidential career partly on climate science and sustainable urban policy, made a deliberate public acknowledgment of that evolution. "I was against fracking, but when I see new technologies and the country's energy situation, the worst thing I can say is 'no' without considering new technologies," she said.

The political weight of that statement was not lost on the states with the most to gain. Coahuila Governor Manolo Jiménez has actively promoted what he calls Gas Coahuila, an unconventional gas extraction program centered on the Sabinas and Burgos basins, framing it as a regional reconstruction plan in the wake of the AHMSA steel company bankruptcy, a collapse that left tens of thousands of families without income in the state's industrial heartland. He has compared the potential economic magnitude of Gas Coahuila to "two AHMSAs" in terms of regional economic dynamism.

Opposition and the Process Problem

The policy shift has drawn direct pushback. Over 80 civil society organizations have argued that environmentally sustainable fracking does not exist in practice, and that the government's framing of "friendly fracking," a term Sheinbaum's team has used, misrepresents the technology's documented environmental impacts.

Critics have also raised objections to the process itself. The position is not blanket opposition to unconventional gas, but a more demanding technical stance: yes to development, but through the correct process, one that requires a Strategic Environmental Assessment of the policy as a whole, not just individual wells, prior consultation with affected communities under the MISSE framework, and transparent publication of the expert panel's methodology and conclusions before any regulatory authorization proceeds.

SENER has not yet announced when the expert panel's recommendations will be published or what regulatory pathway would follow a positive assessment.

The Investment and USMCA Dimension

AMEXHI, the association representing international oil and gas companies operating in Mexico, has conditionally endorsed the fracking evaluation, but tied its support to three requirements: long-term regulatory certainty, competitive frameworks, and physical security in hydrocarbon-producing zones where organized crime poses operational risks.

The fracking question also intersects with the USMCA renegotiation currently underway with Washington. A domestic gas production program of the scale the government is contemplating would reduce Mexico's structural dependence on US gas exports from Texas, a dependence that has been a point of commercial leverage in bilateral energy relations.