S&P Revises PEMEX Outlook: The Week in Oil and Gas

S&P Global Ratings revised PEMEX's credit outlook from stable to negative, maintaining the BBB rating but signaling a potential downgrade within 12 to 24 months, one day after applying the same revision to Mexico's sovereign outlook.

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S&P Shifts PEMEX Outlook to Negative as Structural Losses Persist

The action also extended to four PEMEX subsidiaries: PMI Trading DAC, PMI Norteamérica, Mex Gas Supply, and Deer Park Refining. S&P warned that PEMEX's weak operational performance could compel the government to provide additional transfers, widening the fiscal deficit and placing further pressure on the sovereign. Stripped of government support, S&P describes PEMEX's standalone credit profile as CCC+, characterizing the capital structure as "unsustainable." A downgrade of the sovereign, itself under a negative watch, would automatically trigger a cut to PEMEX, potentially forcing mandatory institutional sell-offs and closing off significant segments of the debt market.

Grupo Carso Acquires Additional 5% Stake in Zama

Grupo Carso disclosed a binding agreement with Harbour Energy to acquire an additional 5% stake in the Zama offshore field for US$75.25 million, bringing its vehicle Zamajal to approximately 17.84% of the field. Post-closing ownership will be PEMEX 50.43%, Harbour Energy 27.26%, Zamajal 17.84%, and Talos Energy 4.47%. The transaction is the latest step in Slim's deliberate accumulation of Mexico's most strategically significant upstream asset, a shallow-water field with 600–800MMboe of recoverable reserves and projected peak output of 180Mb/d by 2029, representing roughly 10% of Mexico's national production target. Carso has separately acquired Lukoil's Mexican subsidiary and entered a mixed contract for the Macavil field, establishing the conglomerate as the dominant domestic private actor in Mexico's upstream sector.

Analysts Flag US Diesel as an Underappreciated Energy Risk

Commodity firm Sparta and investment bank UBS warn that US distillate inventories are on a trajectory toward 26-year lows, driven by the permanent closure of two refineries, LyondellBasell's 290Mb/d Houston plant and Phillips 66's 139Mb/d Wilmington facility, compounded by the Iran conflict constraining the heavy crude grades US Gulf Coast refineries require for optimal diesel yield. The EIA projects combined US gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel inventories will end 2026 at their lowest levels since 2000. US gasoline is already 50% above pre-war levels at US$4.48/gallon, with GasBuddy warning of potential US$5/gallon prices. For Mexico, any sustained increase in international diesel benchmarks directly expands the gap the IEPS mechanism must absorb, a structural exposure that Olmeca's rising domestic diesel output only partially offsets.

Global Oil Reserves Drop at Record Pace, IEA Says

The IEA reports that global oil reserves fell by a combined 246 million barrels in March and April 2026, the fastest drawdown on record, as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US naval blockade on Iranian ports together removed approximately 12.8MMb/d from cumulative supply since February. Brent has surpassed US$120/b. The IEA authorized a release of 400MMb from member strategic reserves, of which 164MMb have been mobilized. Airlines are warning of potential fuel shortages if the crisis persists into summer. For Mexico, IMEF projects a potential revenue loss of more than MX$220 billion if the disruption continues through year-end, which would push the fiscal deficit to approximately 5% of GDP, above the SHCP's 4.1% target, driven primarily by escalating IEPS fuel subsidy costs.

Banobras Signals Readiness to Support PEMEX

Banobras Director General Jorge Mendoza Sánchez confirmed at the 2026 COA Conference that the entire MX$250 billion Plan Orión financing vehicle has been fully drawn down, and that the institution is prepared to expand the program if instructed by the president, SENER, or the Ministry of Finance. No such instruction has been issued. The disclosure underscores the scale of the unresolved problem: despite Plan Orión's deployment, PEMEX still owed MX$375 billion to suppliers at the close of 1Q26, the second-highest level in 16 years, with the original vehicle's scope limited to 2025-vintage invoices, leaving pre-2025 legacy debt entirely unaddressed. A second vehicle referred to as Orión 2 is under development at the intersection of PEMEX, SHCP, and Banobras, but its timeline and scale remain undisclosed, and any expansion remains conditional on a decision from Sheinbaum's economic cabinet.